Predicting invasiveness of species in trade: climate match, trophic guild and fecundity influence establishment and impact of non‐native freshwater fishes

Abstract

Aim Impacts of non-native species have motivated development of risk assessment tools for identifying introduced species likely to become invasive. Here, we develop trait-based models for the establishment and impact stages of freshwater fish invasion, and use them to screen non-native species common in international trade. We also determine which species in the aquarium, biological supply, live bait, live food and water garden trades are likely to become invasive. Results are compared to historical patterns of non-native fish establishment to assess the relative importance over time of pathways in causing invasions. Location Laurentian Great Lakes region.Methods Trait-based classification trees for the establishment and impact stages of invasion were developed from data on freshwater fish species that established or failed to establish in the Great Lakes. Fishes in trade were determined from import data from Canadian and United States regulatory agencies, assigned to specific trades and screened through the developed models.Results Climate match between a species' native range and the Great Lakes region predicted establishment success with 75-81% accuracy. Trophic guild and fecundity predicted potential harmful impacts of established non-native fishes with 75-83% accuracy. Screening outcomes suggest the water garden trade poses the greatest risk of introducing new invasive species, followed by the live food and aquarium trades. Analysis of historical patterns of introduction pathways demonstrates the increasing importance of these trades relative to other pathways. Comparisons among trades reveal that model predictions parallel historical patterns; all fishes previously introduced from the water garden trade have established. The live bait, biological supply, aquarium and live food trades have also contributed established non-native fishes.Main conclusions Our models predict invasion risk of potential fish invaders to the Great Lakes region and could help managers prioritize efforts among species and pathways to minimize such risk. Similar approaches could be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic regions.

Species invasions threaten the antiquity of China's freshwater fish fauna

“…Currently, 20% of finfishes with highest aquaculture production (> 25 000 t year À1 ) are foreign to China and some dominate present-day fish communities in southern China (Wang et al, 2014;Xing et al, 2015). The risk of non-native species should therefore be systematically assessed before their introductions (Howeth et al, 2016), especially in developing countries where megadiverse biotas are chronically under-protected by current conservation policies. For example, a decree referred to as the 'Tilapia Law' had been issued in Brazil to improve aquaculture production by naturalizing non-native fish in Amazonian River Basin (Padial et al, 2016).…”

When pets become pests: the role of the exotic pet trade in producing invasive vertebrate animals

“…; Howeth et al . ). Carrete and Tella () also demonstrated that wild‐caught bird species traded as exotic pets were more likely to establish non‐native populations than captive‐bred species.…”

Transport pathways shape the biogeography of alien freshwater fishes in Australia

“…For the 32 alien fishes and the 144 drainages, we gathered information on 12 geographical, environmental and species‐specific covariates consistently reported in the literature to be associated with the establishment of alien fishes (Clavero, ; García‐Berthou et al., ; Howeth et al., ; Liew, Carrasco, Tan, & Yeo, ). The covariates are described in Table and were collected from publications and online databases (Domisch, Amatulli, & Jetz, ; Froese & Pauly, ; Jetz, McPherson, & Guralnick, ; Kriticos et al., ; Wildlife Conservation Society & Center for International Earth Science Information Network, ).…”