Predicting invasion potential and niche dynamics of Parthenium hysterophorus (Congress grass) in India under projected climate change

Ahmad, Rameez; Khuroo, Anzar A.; Hamid, Maroof; Charles, Bipin; Rashid, Irfan

doi:10.1007/s10531-019-01775-y

Cited by 65 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…2050 and 2070). We constructed ensemble maps based on the median of three runs of all the selected models in which individual model had AUC value equal to or greater than 0.7 and TSS and Kappa values equal to or greater than 0.6 based on current climatic scenario 41,60,102 (Supplementary Table S13). The median files obtained were used for further analysis.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Ahmad

Khuroo

Charles

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Ahmad

Khuroo

Charles

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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“…The Uri locality has relatively low‐altitude and warmer climate than the average altitude of the rest of Kashmir. With projections of the rapidly warming Himalaya, P. hysterophorus may undergone a shift in its climatic niche in the near future (Ahmad et al ). Most likely, the relatively warmer winter temperature may facilitate its distribution in Kashmir.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, a herbarium record in Forest Research Institute, Dehradun (India) indicates P. hysterophorus to have been accidently introduced by Dr Brandis in 1880 (Bennet et al ). Currently, India is one of the highly‐invaded countries by P. hysterophorus in the world (Ahmad et al ), occurring in most of its states in different densities, nearly affecting 35 million hectares of land (Kumar and Varshney ). Having entered the country prior to the 20th century, it remained an unknown weed until 1956.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic diversity and population structure of an invasive plant species differ in two non‐native regions with differing climate and invasion success

Dar

Bhat

Khuroo

et al. 2020

Nordic Journal of Botany

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One of the fundamental questions in invasion biology is why an alien species successfully invades one region but fails to do so in another region. In this regard, the recently emerging molecular ecology tools have made it possible to understand the genetic basis of invasion success and/or failure of alien species in different regions. Here we report the results of studies of the population genetic structure and diversity of Parthenium hysterophorus L. – a global plant invader – from two climatically distinct Himalayan regions: Jammu and Kashmir. While P. hysterophorus has successfully invaded across the subtropical Jammu region, it failed to invade the neighbouring temperate Kashmir region. The results, based on the ISSR data, revealed that the populations from Jammu were genetically more diverse than those from Kashmir. This conclusion was further supported by cluster analysis which grouped all the five populations of P. hysterophorus from Jammu region, but clearly separated out the Kashmir population. It is plausible that this low genetic diversity of P. hysterophorus in the latter region, along with the environmental barrier (i.e. temperate climate), has so far prevented the naturalisation and wide spread of this invasive plant species in Kashmir. The research insights from the present study, therefore, have potential implications for understanding the genetic basis of plant invasions.

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“…We chose three general circulation models (GCMs) of physical climate processes for which the predicted values of each of the bioclimatic variables were available: the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1), the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) and the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Atmosphere Ocean (HADGEM2-AO). The selected GCMs were found to perform well in predicting the potential distribution of invasive species and projecting shifts in species distribution under future climate scenarios (Gillard et al, 2017;Ahmad et al, 2019).…”

Section: Collection Of Occurrence Data and Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Climatic Niche Dynamics of an Invasive Plant Mikania micrantha Kunth and Its Potential Distribution Under Projected Climate Change

et al. 2019

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Predicting invasion potential and niche dynamics of Parthenium hysterophorus (Congress grass) in India under projected climate change

Cited by 65 publications

References 107 publications

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Genetic diversity and population structure of an invasive plant species differ in two non‐native regions with differing climate and invasion success

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Climatic Niche Dynamics of an Invasive Plant Mikania micrantha Kunth and Its Potential Distribution Under Projected Climate Change

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