Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Ahmad, Rameez; Khuroo, Anzar A.; Charles, Bipin; Hamid, Maroof; Rashid, Irfan; Aravind, N. A.

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-47859-1

Cited by 39 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 94 publications

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“…We also call for future research to detect invasive species in the other Natura 2000 areas, especially the Continental and Boreal regions in the European Union. The Continental and Boreal regions are under-represented in terms of ecological research among the Natura 2000 areas [29] and furthermore these areas are experiencing an accelerated global warming [51], making them more vulnerable to biological invasions ( [52,53]). Detection of invasive species with machine learning and Sentinel 2 satellite imagery, as shown by this study, could help mitigate the negative impact of these species, by conveying results to stakeholders, such as authorities who are responsible for the management of Natura 2000 sites.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping of Eucalyptus in Natura 2000 Areas Using Sentinel 2 Imagery and Artificial Neural Networks

2020

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Plantations of fast-growing Eucalyptus trees have become a common sight in the western Iberian peninsula where they are planted to exploit their economic potential. Negative side-effects of large scale plantations including the invasive behavior of Eucalyptus trees outside of regular plantations have become apparent. This study uses medium resolution, multi-spectral imagery of the Sentinel 2 satellites to map Eucalyptus across Portugal and parts of Spain with a focus on Natura 2000 areas inside Portugal, that are protected under the European birds and habitats directives. This method enables the detection of small incipient as well as mixed populations outside of regular plantations. Ground truth maps were compiled using field surveys as well as high resolution satellite imagery and were used to train Feedforward Neural Networks. These models predict Eucalyptus tree cover with a sensitivity of up to 75.7% as well as a specificity of up to 95.8%. The overall accuracy of the prediction is 92.5%. A qualitative assessment of Natura 2000 areas in Portugal has been performed and 15 areas have been found to be affected by Eucalyptus of which 9 are strongly affected. This study demonstrates the applicability of multi-spectral imagery for tree-species classification and invasive species control. It provides a probability-map of Eucalyptus tree cover for the western Iberian peninsula with 10 m spatial resolution and shows the need for monitoring of Eucalyptus in protected areas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping of Eucalyptus in Natura 2000 Areas Using Sentinel 2 Imagery and Artificial Neural Networks

2020

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“…Thus, spatial thinning was performed to remove the spatial autocorrelation and sampling bias. Grid cells with dimensions of 10 × 10 km were created, and a single occurrence point was selected randomly from each cell with more than one occurrence point (Ahmad et al., 2019). A total of 741 unbiased occurrence data points from regions in Asia (74 points), Africa (68 points), Australia (344 points), Oceania (70 points), North America (101 points in total and 48 points from native ranges), and South America (two points) were saved in CSV format (Figure 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several recent studies have analyzed the potential changes in IAS distributions under multiple climate change scenarios at regional and global scales. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely applied in the early detection IAS (Ahmad et al., 2019; Padalia et al., 2014; Rodríguez‐Merino et al., 2018; Srivastava et al., 2018; Zhang et al., 2015; Zhao et al., 2013) by mapping potential IAS distribution and quantifying the relationships between IAS and environmental factors based on occurrence‐only data and species habitat conditions (e.g., climate, soil conditions, and terrain).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

Yanli²,

Liu

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Aim Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. Ageratina adenophora is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of A. adenophora remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of Ageratina adenophora. Location Global. Taxa Asteraceae A. adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed. Methods Based on A. adenophora occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the “ecospat” package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes. Results The area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for A. adenophora invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of A. adenophora under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m). Main conclusions Mean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of A. Adenophora. Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of A. adenophora will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of A. adenophora would expand at higher elevation (3,000–3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.

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“…Currently P. canaliculata distributed more widely than P. maculata. The multiple introduction events of P. canaliculata enhanced genetic diversity, allowing the species to occupy an environmental space that coincides with the native niche (Ahmad et al 2019), and also creating the opportunity for niche expansion when individual snail face novel environments. The resulting effects may explain why P. canaliculata have colonized a larger portion of the suitable environments than P. maculata, despite similar introduction dates in this region.…”

Section: Patterns Of Niche Dynamics and Possible Explanationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Niche conservatism and invasion potential of Pomacea canaliculata and Pomacea maculata in two invaded regions

Qin

Zhang

Zhao

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The most noxious apple snails (Pomacea canaliculata and P. maculata) native to South America, currently has two distinct invaded ranges in China and the United States. Whether the environmental niches of the two closely related species have changed or remained stable (niche conservatism hypothesis) during the invasion process has become an important issue in forecasting their potential geographic distributions. For each Pomacea snail, two ecological niche models (ENMs, employing BIOMOD2) were generated based on bioclimatic variables and occurrence records in: (1) the native range; (2) the different invasive range. Conservation of ecological niche between the native and invasive snail populations were then tested by principal component and niche dynamics analysis. According to all models, precipitation contributed most to distribution of P. maculata, whereas low temperature was another most influential factor for spread of P. canaliculata. Niche conservatism were indicated by niche similarity tests and high niche stability for both Pomacea snails during their invasions in two regions. Niche expansions of P. canaliculata were relatively larger than unfilling values, whereas niche expansions of P. maculata were lower than unfillings. High niche unfilling for P. maculata in the United States revealed a great potential for further expansion in this region. We discuss the possible roles of physiological tolerances, genetic variation, residence time and hybridization in shaping niche changes for Pomacea snails during their invasion processes. Findings of this work can improve the understanding of potential mechanisms for niche differentiation and provide a theoretical basis for forecasting the invasion potential of Pomacea snails.

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Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change

Cited by 39 publications

References 94 publications

Mapping of Eucalyptus in Natura 2000 Areas Using Sentinel 2 Imagery and Artificial Neural Networks

Mapping of Eucalyptus in Natura 2000 Areas Using Sentinel 2 Imagery and Artificial Neural Networks

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ageratina adenophora under current and future climate change scenarios

Niche conservatism and invasion potential of Pomacea canaliculata and Pomacea maculata in two invaded regions

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