Predicting International Freight Flows for Trade: Simultaneous Multimodal, Multicommodity, Network Equilibrium Model

Abstract

Between 1990 and 1997 intraregional trade was very low among the member countries of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). Their export share fell from 10.9% to 8.6% of their total world exports, and their import share rose from 9.1% to 10.4% of their total world imports. Among the main reasons were complicated, costly, and time-consuming border controls and customs formalities. To overcome these obstacles and to promote greater economic integration among its members, ESCWA developed an integrated transport system in the Arab Mashreq (ITSAM). ITSAM comprises three basic components: an integrated (multimodal) transport network, an associated information system, and a methodological framework for issue analysis and policy formulation. The present research focuses on the development of an international freight simultaneous transportation equilibrium model (IFSTEM) to predict equilibrium freight flow patterns (times and costs) that can describe the behaviors of exporters and importers of different commodities over an international multimodal network covering ESCWA member countries. IFSTEM is considered a central component of the ITSAM methodological framework. The application of IFSTEM to the prototype shows that the model satisfies the behavioral aspects of the freight system, and its solution procedure is computationally tractable. This should encourage the full implementation of IFSTEM (after its calibration process) as a policy analysis tool and a decision-support system for transport policy makers in the region. The approach can easily be extended and applied to other regions of the world.

Multimodal, multicommodity international freight simultaneous transportation network equilibrium model

“…IFSTEM is constructed in such a way that commodity exporters make decisions about where and how to transport their freight; choices are made regarding destination, mode, trans-shipment and routing. The IFSTEM model can be described as follows (for more detailed description see [6] and [22]): For each commodity r ∈ C, type r (combinations of road, rail, air and/or maritime modes) o(r) = a set of ALO types for commodity type r (combinations of export, import, transit-in, transit-out, pre-export, pre-import and/or transfer operations) I = Set of origin (export) nodes I = r∈C I r and N r ⊇ I r I r = Set of origin (export) nodes for commodity r i = An origin (export) node in the set I r D r i = Set of destination (import) nodes that are feasible for importing commodity r from origin i j = A destination (import) node in the set D r i R r = Set of origin-destination pairs (ij ) for commodity r R = Set of all origin-destination pairs (ij ) in the system, where R = r∈C R r p = A simple (i.e., no node repeated) multimodal path (i.e., it may include a combination of links with different modes m(r)) for commodity r in the network (N r , A r ) P m(r) ij = Set of simple paths that can be used to transport commodity r from origin i to destination j using only m(r) modes of transport P r = Set of simple paths in the network (N r , A r ),…”

“…In this research a fully implementation of the IFSTEM methodology, as it is described in [6] and [22], to the goods trade through the ports and lands of Jordon, Syria, and Lebanon are carried out. The analysis and the demonstration of the IFSTEM ability to simulate the existing situation and future prediction of goods flows are presented.…”

“…A team to facilitate transport and trade from the Transport Section of Globalization and Regional Integration Division under the supervision of Dr. Nabil Safwat, Chief of the ESCWA Transport Section prepared the following three studies: In ESCWA, [9] study, the authors sequentially used only the trip generation and the trip distribution models of the International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model (IFSTEM) that was developed in ESCWA, [6] (see also [22]) in their prediction methodology.…”

Application of International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model to Sultanate of Oman

“…Oman (IFSTEM-Oman Model) Hasan [31] and Safwat and Hasan [30] described in details the basic functions and assumptions of the International Freight Simultaneous Transport Equilibrium Model (IFSTEM). The IFSTEM Model may be briefly described as follows: …”

“…Safwat and Hasan [30] further adapted the STEM to International Freight STEM (i.e., IFSTEM) and implemented it to the Integrated Transport System in the Arab Mashreq (ITSAM) through United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UN-ESCWA).…”