Application of International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model to Sultanate of Oman

Abstract

An implementation of the International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model (IFSTEM) that developed in United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), to the goods trade through the ports and lands of Sultanate of Oman is presented. Although some socio-economic variables, which are not available, were required for IFSTEM model calibration, some reasonable assumptions were made and it was good enough to draw the following main findings: the proposed alternative enhancement scenarios were four nested scenarios, i.e., each scenario included the previous one plus an additional enhancement. These four enhancement scenarios were analyzed against and compared with scenario (0), i.e., the reference "do nothing" scenario. The prediction results revealed that the estimated international trade flows (imports, exports and re-exports) for Oman were increased by more than 504% by 2040 compared to the present situation of the base year 2012. This increase would represent around 70% compared to the "do nothing" reference scenario by the year 2040 assuming that the average increase of international trade flows in the "do nothing" case would be around 4% annually during the analysis period from 2012 to 2040. The predictions of average total trip time and total cost per ton revealed an estimated decrease, compared to the reference scenario, by around 25% and 20% respectively. These results are internally consistent and represented reasonably significant improvements compared to the "do nothing" reference scenario.