Predicting Individual Differences in Response to Sleep Loss: Application of Current Techniques

Chandler, Joseph F.; Arnold, Richard T.; Phillips, Jeffrey B.; Turnmire, Ashley E

doi:10.3357/asem.3581.2013

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Fatigue, the subjective feeling of tiredness and exhaustion, accompanies experimentally controlled sleep deprivation 5 , 6 , naturally occurring poor quality sleep 7 , and insufficient sleep 8 , and seems to be associated with behavioral reductions in effort. Though loss of sleep typically leads to greater fatigue, there is considerable variability in subjective feelings of fatigue following sleep loss 9 . Total sleep deprivation in the experimental setting refers to twenty-four hours or more of extended wakefulness not induced by naturalistic causes, such as illness.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of sleep deprivation and fatigue in the perception of task difficulty and use of heuristics

et al. 2018

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Objectives This study investigated the effects of sleep deprivation on perception of task difficulty and use of heuristics (mental shortcuts) compared to naturally-experienced sleep at home. Methods: Undergraduate students were screened and assigned through block-random assignment to Naturally-Experienced Sleep (NES; n=19) or Total Sleep Deprivation (TSD; n=20). The next morning, reported fatigue, perception of task difficulty, and use of “what-is-beautiful-is-good,” “greedy algorithm,” and “speed-accuracy trade-off” heuristics were assessed. Results: NES slept for an average of 354.74 minutes (SD=72.84), or 5.91 hours. TSD rated a reading task as significantly more difficult and requiring more time than NES. TSD was significantly more likely to use the greedy algorithm heuristic by skipping instructions and the what-is-beautiful-is-good heuristic by rating an unattractive consumer item with a favorable review as poor quality. Those in Total Sleep Deprivation who chose more difficult math problems made this selection to finish the task more quickly in findings approaching significance, indicating use of the speed-accuracy trade-off heuristic. Collapsed across conditions, self-reported fatigue predicted greater perceived difficulty in both the reading task and a visuo-motor task, higher quality rating for the attractive consumer item, and lower quality rating for the unattractive consumer item. Conclusions: Findings indicate sleep deprivation and fatigue increase perceptions of task difficulty, promote skipping instructions, and impair systematic evaluation of unappealing stimuli compared to naturally-experienced sleep.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of sleep deprivation and fatigue in the perception of task difficulty and use of heuristics

et al. 2018

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“…This work represents an improvement over the work of Chandler and colleagues [ 19 ], who proposed incorporating secondary variables in individualized performance predictions as covariates in a generalized linear model. An advantage of their approach is that it accounts for perturbations on system dynamics from external factors that are common to the outcome variables considered.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Such models do not account for correlation within subjects between response types. The work of Chandler and colleagues [ 19 ] does account for such correlation, using a fixed linear relationship between primary and secondary responses. We did not consider this possibility here, using merely a diagonal error covariance matrix with one parameter for each response type.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction Accuracy in Multivariate Repeated-Measures Bayesian Forecasting Models with Examples Drawn from Research on Sleep and Circadian Rhythms

Kogan

Kalachev

Dongen

2016

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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In study designs with repeated measures for multiple subjects, population models capturing within- and between-subjects variances enable efficient individualized prediction of outcome measures (response variables) by incorporating individuals response data through Bayesian forecasting. When measurement constraints preclude reasonable levels of prediction accuracy, additional (secondary) response variables measured alongside the primary response may help to increase prediction accuracy. We investigate this for the case of substantial between-subjects correlation between primary and secondary response variables, assuming negligible within-subjects correlation. We show how to determine the accuracy of primary response predictions as a function of secondary response observations. Given measurement costs for primary and secondary variables, we determine the number of observations that produces, with minimal cost, a fixed average prediction accuracy for a model of subject means. We illustrate this with estimation of subject-specific sleep parameters using polysomnography and wrist actigraphy. We also consider prediction accuracy in an example time-dependent, linear model and derive equations for the optimal timing of measurements to achieve, on average, the best prediction accuracy. Finally, we examine an example involving a circadian rhythm model and show numerically that secondary variables can improve individualized predictions in this time-dependent nonlinear model as well.

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“…In the field of medical aviation, most of the research investigates the influence of fatigue on aviator’s performance [ 4 – 8 , 16 , 18 , 19 , 23 , 24 ] or the influence of psychostimulants, such as modafinil (provigil) on performance in deprived aviators [ 3 , 5 ]. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are no studies in this field that investigate changes in cognitive control processes across the different hours of the day.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mechanisms of cognitive control in cadet pilots

Gordon¹,

Getter

et al. 2016

Disaster and Mil Med

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BackgroundOptimizing performance of aviators while minimizing risks arising from the exposure to extreme environment, both external and internal, is one of the principles guiding the Israeli Air Force. Young cadets in particular are considered an “at risk” population due to the fact that they have no experience in flight in the first stages of training and are therefore subjects for investigation.MethodsIn this study, we investigated the cognitive performance of young cadet pilots across different hours of the day. 39 cadets were randomly divided into 3 groups: morning, late afternoon, and late evening groups and then tested on a cognitive battery that contained both simple performance measures but also complex measures like dual-tasking and mental rotation test.ResultsThe analysis indicated a significant effect of ‘time of day’ on the participants’ accuracy [F (2, 32) = 3.4, p < 0.05]. In a post hoc pairwise t-tests, we found a near significant (p = 0.52) increase in participants’ accuracy and a significant increase [F (2, 32) = 4.5, p < 0.05] in participants’ reaction time in the late evening group as compared to the morning group. We also found a differential effect of dual tasking on accuracy in the different daytimes [F (2, 33) = 5.6, p < 0.01]. In a post hoc analysis, we found that accuracy in the 1-back task deteriorates from single task condition to the dual task condition only in the morning group (p < 0.05), but not in the late evening or late-afternoon group.ConclusionsThis ‘trade-off’ behavior, slowing down in order to perform better, in the late evening group may be a result of a voluntary control mechanism (top-down processes) activated at night, in this group. The combination of feeling fatigue, along with the understanding that complex tasks are more resource consuming, caused the cadets to check and double-check before answering, whereas in the morning group, they felt alert and vital, and acted more reactively, ended in an impulsive manner that caused to inaccurate performance.

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Predicting Individual Differences in Response to Sleep Loss: Application of Current Techniques

Abstract: Simply leveraging RSTs' ability to capture individual differences in fatigue susceptibility can substantially improve biomathematical prediction of fatigued performance.

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

The role of sleep deprivation and fatigue in the perception of task difficulty and use of heuristics

The role of sleep deprivation and fatigue in the perception of task difficulty and use of heuristics

Prediction Accuracy in Multivariate Repeated-Measures Bayesian Forecasting Models with Examples Drawn from Research on Sleep and Circadian Rhythms

Mechanisms of cognitive control in cadet pilots

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