Predicting Impacts of Tropical Cyclones and Sea-Level Rise on Beach Mouse Habitat

Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

doi:10.2112/si68-002.1

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Increased inundation from storm surges can alter shorelines, erode dune systems, affect salt marsh dynamics, and modify sediment and salinity patterns. This can directly influence the fate and population of sea turtles, beach mice, oysters, shrimp, and fish, for example [Pike and Stiner, 2007;Reece et al, 2013;Chen et al, 2014;Solomon et al, 2014;Huang et al, 2015].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

et al. 2016

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This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static ("bathtub") modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

et al. 2016

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“…The ability to assess the vulnerability of beach mouse habitat to coastal change depends on accurate measurements of dune height and position (Stockdon et al 2009). Lidar topographic surveys, which are increasingly available, can characterize habitat at a fine spatial scale and were used to examine the effects of future storm surge on beach mouse habitat in Alabama (Chen et al 2014). These efforts could refine dune land cover classification into primary, secondary, and tertiary dunes, which may offer alternative resources to beach mice; categorize dune slope into finer classes, which could better distinguish burrow suitability; and measure vegetation heterogeneity, which can influence beach mouse foraging (Lynn 2000, Sneckenberger 2001, Bird et al 2004, Pries et al 2009, Branch et al 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mice are more likely to recolonize dunes near refugium (non-flooded areas) after a flood (Pries et al 2009, Chen et al 2014).…”

Section: Distance To Refugiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic Habitat Conservation for Beach Mice: Estimating Management Scenario Efficiencies

et al. 2020

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The Perdido Key beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus trissyllepsis), Choctawhatchee beach mouse (P. p. allophrys), and St. Andrew beach mouse (P. p. peninsularis) are 3 federally endangered subspecies that inhabit coastal dunes of Alabama and Florida, USA. Conservation opportunities for these subspecies are limited and costly. Consequently, well‐targeted efforts are required to achieve their downlisting criteria. To aid the development of targeted management scenarios that are designed to achieve downlisting criteria, we developed a Bayesian network model that uses habitat characteristics to predict the probability of beach mouse presence at a 30‐m resolution across a portion of the Florida Panhandle. We then designed alternative management scenarios for a variety of habitat conditions for coastal dunes. Finally, we estimated how much area is needed to achieve the established downlisting criterion (i.e., habitat objective) and the amount of effort needed to achieve the habitat objective (i.e., management efficiency). The results suggest that after 7 years of post‐storm recolonization, habitat objectives were met for Perdido Key (within its Florida critical habitat) and Choctawhatchee beach mice. The St. Andrew beach mouse required 5.14 km2 of additional critical habitat to be protected and occupied. The St. Andrew beach mouse habitat objective might be achieved by first restoring protected critical habitat to good dune conditions and then protecting or restoring the unprotected critical habitat with the highest predicted probability of beach mouse presence. This scenario provided a 28% increase in management efficiency compared to a scenario that randomly protected or restored undeveloped unprotected critical habitat. In total, when coupled with established downlisting criteria, these quantitative and spatial decision support tools could provide insight into how much habitat is available, how much more is needed, and targeted conservation or restoration efforts that might efficiently achieve habitat objectives. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

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“…Loss of late‐succession sand dune plant habitats and fragmentation of coastal dune systems due to frequent storm events coupled with sea‐level rise is predicted to cause beach mouse ( Peromyscus spp.) population declines (Feagin et al 2005, Yuro 2011, Chen et al 2014, Cronin et al 2021). Climate change and sea‐level rise will have effects on marsh bird populations; however, the timing and scale of effects may be highly variable regionally and among species (Woodrey et al 2012, Nuse et al 2015, Hunter et al 2017).…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Decline in annual survival of American oystercatchers wintering in Florida linked to extreme high tides

2023

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The projected effects of climate change include an increase in the frequency and intensity of storm events and sea‐level rise, which can erode and degrade coastal habitats and affect coastal‐dependent species. The American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) is a shorebird that is dependent on low‐lying coastal habitats for breeding and wintering and is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and sea‐level rise. We investigated the degree to which changes in duration of flooding of roosts affected annual survival of individuals in a large wintering population of oystercatchers on the Nature Coast of Florida, USA. We used 12 years (2007–2018) of mark‐resight data from a large‐scale monitoring effort that included winter resights on Florida's Nature Coast to model the annual survival and site fidelity of sub‐adult and adult birds. High‐tide roosts are limited in number and are a potential population‐limiting factor for wintering oystercatchers. We assessed the effect of roost inundation on survival and site fidelity by incorporating the number of hours roosts were at risk of inundation during extreme higher high tide events each winter. We documented a 7.3% decline in annual survival, from 0.96 to 0.89, over the study period, and survival rates did not differ between age stages. The decline was associated with an increase in the duration of extreme higher high tides, which had a negative effect (β = −0.003; 95% CI = −0.006 to −0.001) on survival. Site fidelity varied across the study period and among age stages, with lower rates in sub‐adults (0.85; 95% CI = 0.80–0.89) than in adults (0.94; 95% CI = 0.89–0.97). The duration of nest and roost inundation are among the greatest threats to oystercatcher populations, and high‐tide roosts are an important habitat component for wintering populations on the Nature Coast. Sea‐level rise is predicted to increase, which will contribute to the increasing inundation duration of coastal habitats. Our results underscore the importance of conservation and restoration of important wintering habitats to mitigate threats to the population viability of oystercatchers in Florida and throughout their range.

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Predicting Impacts of Tropical Cyclones and Sea-Level Rise on Beach Mouse Habitat

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

Strategic Habitat Conservation for Beach Mice: Estimating Management Scenario Efficiencies

Decline in annual survival of American oystercatchers wintering in Florida linked to extreme high tides

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