Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static ("bathtub") modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

“…Research results highlighting needs for new SLR projections [75,80] or new coastal impacts assessment methods [55,[81][82][83][84] To demonstrate issues that are uncertain and sensitive requiring further research at local to regional scales.…”

“…Coastal vulnerability indicators [86] Detailed [66,81,87] to appropriate complexity modelling [88] Expected annual damages, adaptation needs [89][90][91][92][93][94] Critical infrastructures such as nuclear power plants [68,95] Critical settlements such as atoll islands [96,97] To assess local to regional SLR, coastal environmental evolution and societal development within a single framework.…”

“…This leads to questions such as: are the conclusions suggested by coastal impact modelling experiments robust against the uncertainties in sea level projections and other uncertain parameters incorporated by the model and in agreement with existing data? Are the modelling results sensitive to different and equally appropriate modelling strategies [81,183]? Does the model itself have a bias or imprecision that could jeopardize the robustness of these conclusions?…”

A Case Study of Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis of Building Levees to Mitigate the Joint Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

“…Frazier, Wood [9] quantified the joint effects on the Coast of Sarasota County in Florida. Several other studies have included SLR into the dynamic modeling of storm surge [10,11].…”

Building Blocks: A Quantitative Approach for Evaluating Coastal Vulnerability

“…Several coastal regions around the world are vulnerable to diverse natural hazards such as floods, landslides, storm surges, and erosion [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] due to climatic variations [11,12]. Predictions highlight that 12% of the global population over the next 50 years will reside in coastal flood risk zones [13][14][15].…”