Predicting giant panda habitat with climate data and calculated habitat suitability index (HSI) map

Ji, Jian; Jiang, Hong; Jiang, Zhiyong; Zhou, Guomo; Yu, Shu; Peng, Shuang; Liu, Shirong; Liu, Shaoyin; Wang, Jinxi

doi:10.1002/met.1376

Cited by 44 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Other recent studies of the entire giant panda distribution area showed that 53-71% of the current habitats would be lost under the climate scenarios. They predict that future suitable habitats would likely be located in high-elevation areas in the Min Shan and Liang Shan (Li et al, 2015), and the suitable habitat gradually moves north under projected global climate change (Jian et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda

Shen

Pimm

Feng

et al. 2015

Biological Conservation

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a b s t r a c tThe global total of protected areas to conserve biodiversity is increasing steadily, while numerous studies show that they are broadly effective. That said, how will current conservation strategies work, given the current and expected changes to the global climate? The giant panda is a conservation icon and exceptional efforts protect its remaining habitats. It provides a unique case study to address this question. There are many studies on the projected loss of habitats as climate warms, but few consider the geographical arrangement of future habitats, current protected area, and species' dispersal abilities. Most alarmingly, we expect much greater habitat fragmentation after climate change. Here, we combine long-term data on giant pandas with climate-change scenarios to predict future habitat loss and distribution in the Min Shan of Sichuan and Gansu, China. We employ metapopulation capacity as a mechanistic measure of a species' response to habitat fragmentation. The results show that climate changes will lead to 16.3 ± 1.4 (%) losses of giant panda habitats. Alarmingly, 11.4% of the remaining habitat fragments would be smaller than the extinction threshold area as the extent of fragmentation increases nearly fourfold. The projected fragmentation of giant panda habitats predicts 9% lower effectiveness inside the protected area network compared with that outside of reserves. A 35% reduction will occur in future effectiveness of reserve networks. The results challenge the long-term effectiveness of protected areas in protecting the species' persistence. They indicate a need for integrating both natural processes and dynamic threats over a simple reliance on individual static natural reserves.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda

Shen

Pimm

Feng

et al. 2015

Biological Conservation

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“…However, the quality of the habitat of giant pandas in the existing and potential habitats of the giant pandas, excepting the Qinling mountains, gradually turns worse with climate change (a decrease of 3.16%) (Jian et al. ). It can be deduced that the impacts of climate change on giant pandas in north Minshan mountains is not too bad as expected for the following two reasons.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of temperature on giant panda habitat in the north Minshan Mountains

Liu

Guan

Dai

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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Understanding the impacts of meteorological factors on giant pandas is necessary for future conservation measures in response to global climate change. We integrated temperature data with three main habitat parameters (elevation, vegetation type, and bamboo species) to evaluate the influence of climate change on giant panda habitat in the northern Minshan Mountains using a habitat assessment model. Our study shows that temperature (relative importance = 25.1%) was the second most important variable influencing giant panda habitat excepting the elevation. There was a significant negative correlation between temperature and panda presence (ρ = −0.133, P < 0.05), and the temperature range preferred by giant pandas within the study area was 18–21°C, followed by 15–17°C and 22–24°C. The overall suitability of giant panda habitats will increase by 2.7%, however, it showed a opposite variation patterns between the eastern and northwestern region of the study area. Suitable and subsuitable habitats in the northwestern region of the study area, which is characterized by higher elevation and latitude, will increase by 18007.8 hm2 (9.8% habitat suitability), while the eastern region will suffer a decrease of 9543.5 hm2 (7.1% habitat suitability). Our results suggest that increasing areas of suitable giant panda habitat will support future giant panda expansion, and food shortage and insufficient living space will not arise as problems in the northwest Minshan Mountains, which means that giant pandas can adapt to climate change, and therefore may be resilient to climate change. Thus, for the safety and survival of giant pandas in the Baishuijiang Reserve, we propose strengthening the giant panda monitoring program in the west and improving the integrity of habitats to promote population dispersal with adjacent populations in the east.

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“…Giant panda habitats are characterized by high mountains and deep valleys, and complex physical (e.g., soil type) conditions (Viña et al, 2010), where small‐scale topographic features such as slopes and ephemeral waterways play a major role in the microenvironment (Ehleringer & Cooper, 1988). Increased precipitation would alter this microenvironment, such as soil biota, increasing erosion and streamflow, and plant and animal diversity (Bhalla et al 2021; Blankinship et al, 2011; Eisenhauer et al, 2012; Engelbrecht et al, 2007), resulting in a degradation of giant panda habitat (Jian et al, 2014). Higher precipitation and erosion increase soil instability of the microenvironment, causing geo‐hazards and potentially increasing panda injuries and death.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda

Li,

Rao,

Gai

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear‐edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2–3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3–4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear‐edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

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Predicting giant panda habitat with climate data and calculated habitat suitability index (HSI) map

Cited by 44 publications

References 10 publications

Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda

Climate change challenges the current conservation strategy for the giant panda

Impacts of temperature on giant panda habitat in the north Minshan Mountains

Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda

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