Giant pandas are losing their edge: Population trend and distribution dynamic drivers of the giant panda

Abstract

Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear‐edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2–3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3–4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear‐edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.

Research on the Changes in Distribution and Habitat Suitability of the Chinese Red Panda Population

“…Habit disappearance in the Minshan mountains was accompanied by the southward shrinkage of Chinese red panda population distribution, and its northernmost distribution line moved from the northern part of the Minshan mountains to the junction area between the southern part of these mountains and the Qionglai mountains (Figure 1). Generally speaking, population distribution shrinkage is a spatial change that occurs over time under the combined influence of stress factors such as climate, human activities, and the physiological and ecological characteristics of the species [47]. In the current reality scenario, if habitat suitability is generally improved then the question of whether Chinese red pandas still face the risk of persistent population distribution shrinkage becomes one that urgently needs to be answered.…”

“…However, on a local scale, the habitat suitability change in the Liangshan mountains is opposite to the trend at the landscape scale. Compared with the Qionglai, Daxiangling and Xiaoxiangling mountains, the Liangshan mountains still suffered from the negative impact of climate change under the implementation of ecological protection policies, thus indicating that the Chinese red panda's habitat in the Liangshan mountains has ecological fragility [47,48]. This may be related to the poor vegetation restoration status and long-term existence of grazing and other human disturbances in the Liangshan mountains for many years.…”

Facilitating giant panda crossings of national highway in Wolong area of Giant Panda National Park amid human activities

“…These groups continue to face challenges like habitat fragmentation and the diminution of genetic diversity (SFD, 2015 ). In response to these challenges, researchers shed light on their struggles and designed a range of solutions, including addressing issues like the loss of habitat connectivity, isolation, and population segmentation (Hu et al., 2017 ; Li et al., 2023 ; Wei, 2018 ; Zhu et al., 2011 ). These research efforts have led to proposals such as the reconfiguration of the reserve's management zones, implementation of livestock grazing prohibitions, and construction of corridors (Hull et al., 2011 ; Qiu et al., 2019 ; Wang et al., 2021 ; Xu et al., 2006 , 2019 ; Yang et al., 2023 ; Zhang et al., 2017 ).…”