Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Bitetto, Massimiliano Di; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

doi:10.1093/conphys/cou059

Cited by 93 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(82 reference statements)

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“…We found a clear association of invasion status with mass‐specific metabolic rate—our study joins a growing list finding such an association (Alvarez & Nicieza, ; Bruijs, Kelleher, van der Velde, & de Vaate, ; Marras et al., ; Norin & Malte, ). It is unclear whether invaders are successful because they have a higher metabolic rate or species that are invasive evolve to have a high metabolic rate.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Do invasive species live faster? Mass‐specific metabolic rate depends on growth form and invasion status

2017

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Abstract1. Invasive organisms often share characteristics that make them successful. Traits such as rapid growth and short generation times are classic "weed" phenotypes, such that invasive species often have r-selected rather than k-selected life histories.Given that invasive species often display "fast" life histories, invasive species may have relatively higher metabolic rates but systematic tests across taxa are lacking.2. We compared metabolic rate across 14 sessile invasive and native marine invertebrates. We also investigated the influence of growth form (erect vs. flat species) on the metabolic rate of these species, since growth form can also affect metabolic rate.3. For species with an erect growth form, we found an effect of invasive status on mass-specific metabolic rate. Invasive species had much higher mass-specific metabolic rates than native species and this was particularly pronounced for organisms with smaller body masses.4. Given that smaller-bodied invasive organisms are typically early-successional, "fugitive" species, a higher metabolic rate may allow a faster pace of life, enhancing their capacity to invade and reproduce in newly created disturbed habitats. relative to native species, they generally have more rapid growth, reproduce sooner and therefore have shorter generation times (Ehrlich, 1986;Lejeusne, Latchere, Petit, Rico, & Green, 2014;Lodge, 1993;Matzek, 2012;van Kleunen, Dawson, et al., 2010). Together, these traits make for the classic "weed" phenotype, whereby invasive species are thought to have r-selected rather than k-selected life histories (Ehrlich, 1986;McMahon, 2002;Sakai et al., 2001). That invasive species tend to have faster life histories than noninvasive species has long been recognised, but the underlying physiological drivers of faster, more-invasive life histories are poorly understood. Measures of metabolic rate integrate the costs associated with a range of organismal functions, including the maintenance of homeostasis, feeding and digestion, growth, and reproduction. Metabolic rate is therefore a likely driver of differences in life history among invasive and native species.Several lines of evidence suggest that systematic differences in the metabolic rates of native and invasive species are likely.Generally, metabolic rate is thought to covary with key life-history Paper previously published as Standard Paper.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Do invasive species live faster? Mass‐specific metabolic rate depends on growth form and invasion status

2017

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“…While our findings on variable importance are in accordance with those obtained for another Mediterranean fish invader (Azzurro et al, ), they seem to contradict the general conclusion that the main driver of fish geographic ranges is surface water temperature (e.g. Hiddink & Hofstede, ; Lasram & Mouillot, ), which is also often assumed by physiological studies (see Marras et al, for Siganidae). If confirmed by additional testing on other species, our results might indicate that the use of temperature‐related variables can be limitative when SDMs are applied to modelling the distribution of Lessepsian species.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Integrating univariate niche dynamics in species distribution models: A step forward for marine research on biological invasions

D’Amen

Azzurro

2019

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim The development of approaches to predict the distribution and potential expansion of invasive species is still an open challenge. Here our goal is to improve the modelling procedure for marine invaders by coupling Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with an analysis of their univariate niche dynamics. In particular, we tested for the first time whether choosing model predictors among the stable niche dimensions was effective in improving predictions of invasive species expansion. Location Mediterranean Sea. Taxon Dusky spinefoot, Siganus luridus. Methods We analysed the univariate niche dynamics for S. luridus across its native and invaded ranges, by applying a standardized framework that allowed the identification of cases of niche stability or shift. We compared inter‐range transferability of SDMs fitted with different combinations of labile or stable predictors. Finally, we evaluated interactions in SDM settings (calibration area, model technique and predictors set) on models’ predictive ability, using independent data from the most recent phase of invasion. Results We detected a pattern of niche stability for several variables, especially salinity and bathymetry, which positively influenced model inter‐ranges transferability: when the models calibrated in the native range include only stable niche axes, predictive ability is improved. We also identified a shift towards lower surface temperatures in the introduced range, which were almost never experienced by the species before invasion. The model calibrated within the combined ranges was the most ecologically congruent. Also, models calibrated in the invaded range allowed a correct prediction of range expansion, with the predicted suitable areas only slightly underestimated. Main conclusions We provide the first evidence that using conserved predictors in SDMs improves inter‐range projections of expanding invasive species. Variable selection, calibration area and modelling technique all matter when modelling invasive species, with important interaction effects. We provide guidelines on how to improve SDMs applications in biological invasion research.

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“…Beyond changing detection lags, factors associated with changing Mediterranean climate (Macias et al 2013) can act to modify survival or reproduction and influence the probabilities of establishment of exotic organisms. Specifically, increasing establishment rates are expected for warm adapted species in a warming Mediterranean environment (Jørgensen et al 2012;Marras et al 2015).…”

Section: Ratementioning

confidence: 99%

Lag times in Lessepsian fish invasion

et al. 2016

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Insight from theory has shown the usefulness of considering time lags in both plant and animal invasions, but this topic has yet to be fully explored with real examples. Here we define and investigate several types of lags using Red Sea fish invasions of the Mediterranean as a case study. By exploring both conceptual and analytical aspects of time lags, we suggest that this concept can be applied to both the ecology and management of invasions. Through the review of available literature and by compiling a comprehensive geo-referenced database, we show that our understanding of the temporal nature of invasion can be confounded by our varying capability to perceive it. This deep, sometimes inextricable, connection between the temporal nature of a process and its observation represents a critical issue for our understanding of the Lessepsian phenomenon, and is a challenge for invasion biology more generally. While our case study is associated with a very specific date in which the Suez Canal opened, our framework is expected to broaden the notion of time lags in bioinvasions research.

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Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling

Cited by 93 publications

References 58 publications

Do invasive species live faster? Mass‐specific metabolic rate depends on growth form and invasion status

Do invasive species live faster? Mass‐specific metabolic rate depends on growth form and invasion status

Integrating univariate niche dynamics in species distribution models: A step forward for marine research on biological invasions

Lag times in Lessepsian fish invasion

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