Integrating univariate niche dynamics in species distribution models: A step forward for marine research on biological invasions

Abstract

Aim The development of approaches to predict the distribution and potential expansion of invasive species is still an open challenge. Here our goal is to improve the modelling procedure for marine invaders by coupling Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with an analysis of their univariate niche dynamics. In particular, we tested for the first time whether choosing model predictors among the stable niche dimensions was effective in improving predictions of invasive species expansion. Location Mediterranean Sea. Taxon Dusky spinefoot, Siganus luridus. Methods We analysed the univariate niche dynamics for S. luridus across its native and invaded ranges, by applying a standardized framework that allowed the identification of cases of niche stability or shift. We compared inter‐range transferability of SDMs fitted with different combinations of labile or stable predictors. Finally, we evaluated interactions in SDM settings (calibration area, model technique and predictors set) on models’ predictive ability, using independent data from the most recent phase of invasion. Results We detected a pattern of niche stability for several variables, especially salinity and bathymetry, which positively influenced model inter‐ranges transferability: when the models calibrated in the native range include only stable niche axes, predictive ability is improved. We also identified a shift towards lower surface temperatures in the introduced range, which were almost never experienced by the species before invasion. The model calibrated within the combined ranges was the most ecologically congruent. Also, models calibrated in the invaded range allowed a correct prediction of range expansion, with the predicted suitable areas only slightly underestimated. Main conclusions We provide the first evidence that using conserved predictors in SDMs improves inter‐range projections of expanding invasive species. Variable selection, calibration area and modelling technique all matter when modelling invasive species, with important interaction effects. We provide guidelines on how to improve SDMs applications in biological invasion research.

Biological invasions reveal how niche change affects the transferability of species distribution models

“…Moreover, we found the number of native presence points to be even more important for SDM transferability than niche change. In addition to considering niche change for improving the development of SDMs (D'Amen & Azzurro, 2020; Pearman et al, 2008), researchers modeling species distributions in exotic ranges should work in close collaboration with researchers who can obtain high‐quality presence data of the species in their native range.…”

“…Niche conservatism is also a fundamental assumption of species distribution models (SDMs), which are a crucial tool for predicting the potential distribution of species and supporting the design of conservation strategies (Feng et al, 2019; Guisan & Thuiller, 2005; Jeschke & Strayer, 2008). SDMs are developed on the basis of the realized ecological niche (i.e., the environmental conditions in which a species persists in nature) by fitting the relationship between species distributions and environmental predictors (D'Amen & Azzurro, 2020; Guisan & Thuiller, 2005; Petitpierre et al, 2017). In recent decades, a number of SDMs have been developed using data obtained from one region and transferred to other regions or time periods under the assumption of niche conservatism (Jeschke & Strayer, 2008; Werkowska et al, 2017).…”

ORMEF: a Mediterranean database of exotic fish records

“…Grey literature was also considered, when accessible. All the historical observations of species are considered, from the earliest documented records to the most recent ones included in the latest version of ORMEF (October 2020), which extracts data from 670 papers published between 1902–2020 32 .…”

Climate change paves the way for a new inter‐ocean fish interchange

“…2005), their intrinsic tendency toward climatic niche expansion (Parravicini et al . 2015), and their ability to colonize areas characterized by non‐analogous climatic conditions (D’Amen and Azzurro 2020b), in addition to existing evidence of recent geographical expansions under warming scenarios. The time is therefore ripe to contemplate what may happen next.…”