Predicting climate-induced changes in groundwater resources on the basis of hydrogeological model research: Case study of the Carpathian flysch belt

Abstract

have shown growth in the frequency, time of duration and intensity of heat waves, as well as a surge in the number of incidents of heavy rainfall. The number of days with precipitation exceeding 10-20 mm has risen, while a drop has been observed in the number of days when the volume of rainfall was lower than 5, 1 and 0.1 mm. During that period a marked increase in and continuous extension of the HWDI (heat wave duration index) could be discerned. The number of days with temperatures exceeding 20 o C has also risen.The authors of the IV IPCC Report predict that in the 21st century these trends will continue; in milder climates, this may lead to an increased frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and a greater risk of droughts and heavy rainfall (Meehl et al., 2007). Between 1990 and 2100 the global temperature of the air is predicted to go up by 1-5.8 o C (Nyirfa and Harron, 2001;Showstack, 2001). Observations and prognoses concerning the changes are hotly debatated by the international community, as climate alterations may impair the infiltration of water, which in turn would have disastrous effects on groundwater and could diminish the yield of wells (Rivard et al., 2003; Tranberth et al., 2007; Apaydin, 2009). Long-term studies of groundwater levels and precipitation contributed to an increase in the number of reports, some of which concern Poland as well. Their aim is to analyse the alterations in the groundwater table that have occurred over an extended period of time. Apart from presenting patterns in the groundwater regime, the authors often attempt to plot visible trends in the occurring changes and determine their cause, usually with the use of elementary statistical parameters. Chelmicki's work concerning Poland (1986Poland ( , 1991, which include data from 1961-1980, have shown that the water table has risen in most of the country. More localised reports, such as Dynowska and Pietrygowa's (1978) from the upper river Vistula basin, Kazimierski's (1999) from the Masovian Plain or Guzik's et al. (1999) from the Cracow-Silesian Region, based on the analyses of data from up to 25-year-long periods, have also shown a rise in groundwater levels. According to the authors, this tendency may be a result of an increase in overall rainfall (Dynowska and Pietrygowa, 1978;Chelmicki, 1986Chelmicki, , 1991 combined with a decrease in groundwater exploitation (Guzik et al., 1999;Kazimierski, 1999). Dabrowski's (1997) analysis of the renewability of Greater Poland's tertiary groundwater body has shown, at the same time, the opposite, downward trend for the water table in the high plain of Sroda. In the years 1975-1982, the rate of water table lowering wasThe level of water in aquifers depends mostly on precipitation. However, recent research has shown that greater annual rainfall values do not necessarily trigger off an automatic increase in groundwater recharge. The lowering of the water table may result not only from lower precipitation, but also from intensification in evaporation and a decreased natural inf...

Determinants of the distribution of springs in the upper part of a flysch ridge in the Bieszczady Mountains in southeastern Poland

“…However, the mapping of springs and circulation patterns is very laborious and time-consuming. Furthermore, groundwater supplies and consequently spring density change from season to season as well as in the long term due to climate change and other factors (Buczynski and Wcislo, 2013). This is why the hydrology of springs needs to be observed and documented on an ongoing basis in order to provide a credible basis for analysis.…”

Long-term monitoring and GIS based determination of groundwater drought propagation, the Lower Silesia region, SW Poland

“…An analysis of the effect of climate change on the groundwater system can be found in the paper of Woldeamlak et al (2007) taking into account that an appearance of drought may be treated as a succession of climatic disturbances. After Allen et al, (2004), Apaydin (2010), Loáiciga (2003), Okkonen et al, (2010), Radhakrishnan and Elango (2011) or Buczynski and Wcislo (2013), it is evident that climate change may have a negative impact on groundwater resources and shallow aquifers are more susceptible to changes in resources and fluctuations of the groundwater table. These studies also proved that shallow aquifers are affected by local climate changes, whereas deep aquifers are affected only by regional changes.…”

Fresh- and therapeutic groundwater mixing model in Tylicz region (Polish Carpathians)

“…The calibration process was conducted by trial-and-error method and was described in detail by Buczyński and Wcisło (2013). As a target for water tables, springs elevation was used as well as unused wells and calibration met the stated criteria (Fig.…”

“…Also for water budget, river fluxes corresponds in model and from field data (discrepancy <5%). As an outcome, the hydraulic conductivity distribution was obtained (Buczyński and Wcisło, 2013) as well as water table distribution (Fig. 5) and water budget ( Table 1).…”