Predicting climate change impacts on the threatened Quercus arbutifolia in montane cloud forests in southern China and Vietnam: Conservation implications

Abstract

A B S T R A C TTrees of montane cloud forests (MCFs) often have small and isolated populations and face numerous threats. Due to limited conservation resources, management decisions are often based on scarce biological information. This study investigated the current status of populations of the critically endangered oak species Quercus arbutifolia in southern China, including its distribution, threats, population structure, and area of occupancy (AOO). Additionally, by using ensembles of small models (ESMs), the present and future (2050) distributions of climatically suitable habitats were predicted throughout south China and Vietnam. The present distribution of Q. arbutifolia is extremely fragmented, with only eight confirmed populations and a very small number of individuals (ca. 1200 in total). The results presented here show that Q. arbutifolia populations suffer from habitat destruction and fragmentation, small population size, unbalanced population structure, and pressure from strong competitor species, even though all known occurrences of Q. arbutifolia are in already established nature reserves. Based on the utilized models, the current potential distribution is limited to MCFs, and 17 new areas were predicted to have complete habitats suitability for Q. arbutifolia. However, only a small area in Fujian province will remain suitable for Q. arbutifolia in the future. The current AOO of Q. arbutifolia is very small (8.49 km 2 ), with one-third of all populations predicted to be extinct by 2050, even under the minimum emission assumption. Finally, various actions and conservation measures, such as search for new unknown populations as well as ex situ and in situ conservation, are introduced and discussed in this paper.

Climate change influences on the potential distribution of Dianthus polylepis Bien. ex Boiss. (Caryophyllaceae), an endemic species in the Irano-Turanian region

“…These implications will be particularly damning for endemic plant species in montane areas, because of their restricted geographic ranges and relatively narrow environmental tolerances [15,16]. These species may shift their geographic ranges to higher elevations in the face of a warming climate, often accompanied by decreases in population size via range reduction and fragmentation [7,17]. Despite the importance of these regions for preserving endangered and endemic species, relatively few studies have focused on their climate change sensitivity [18].…”

Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

“…In central-western Spain Quercus, geographical distribution scenarios relative to land use and abiotic stress-factors were modeled (Hernández-Lambraño et al 2019). Phylogeographic and climatic indicators for the past and current status of the Quercus in China was assessed (Song et al 2019;Xu et al 2020).…”

Past, present and future suitable areas for the relict tree Pterocarya fraxinifolia (Juglandaceae): Integrating fossil records, niche modeling, and phylogeography for conservation

“…Ecological niche modeling (ENM) combines current natural occurrence data and environmental variables of species to estimate the geographic range of suitable habitats in the past, present, and future (Roberts and Hamann 2012). ENM has been widely applied in conservation biology and invasion biology to predict potential shifts in geographic ranges in response to climate change (Guisan et al 2013;Song et al 2019;Tang et al 2017). A substantial amount of research has been conducted to understand the influence of ongoing climate warming on the geographic ranges of Mediterranean forest tree species (Montoya et al 2007;Romo et al 2017;Walas et al 2019).…”