Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Abstract

Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

The first record of Propomacrus bimucronatus (Pallas, 1781) (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) from Iraq, with notes on its distribution and phenology in the Near East

“…Several species of oaks are recorded from Iraqi Kurdistan, for example, ), any of them can be a host, if their trunk is old enough and hollow. The collecting localities of P. bimucronatus in Kurdistan correspond well with the distribution of Q. aegilops, which is considered to be the most common oak species in Kurdistan (Khwarahm 2020). We suggest that old walnut trees (J. regia) can also be the host of P. bimucronatus, but it is not more than a bare assumption, based on the existence of the old large walnut trees in one of the localities (Akre).…”

“…The collecting localities of P. bimucronatus in Kurdistan correspond well with the distribution of Q. aegilops , which is considered to be the most common oak species in Kurdistan ( Khwarahm 2020 ). We suggest that old walnut trees ( J.…”

“…ex Hohen. ( Khwarahm 2020 ), any of them can be a host, if their trunk is old enough and hollow. The collecting localities of P. bimucronatus in Kurdistan correspond well with the distribution of Q.…”

Understanding the Use of Timber in Semi-Arid Regions: Kurdistan Region of Iraq, a Case Study

“…According to an estimation [23], green spaces presently account for only 12.44% of KRI total land area. Oak forests make up approximately 90% of the total forest cover in the region, and the remaining 10% comprises plantation, pine forest, riverine, and others (e.g., Pistacia khinjuk, Crataegus azaro), often mixed with the oak forests [24]. It is important to remark that oaks are a large group of hardwood trees that can be used industrially to produce timber, furniture leathering, and veneer production [25].…”

Assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution of Daphne mucronata in Iran

“…The most important models that use presence data to determine species distribution are the ecological niche factor analysis model (Hirzel & Guisan, 2002), the genetic algorithm method (Stockwell & Peters, 1999), and the Maxent model (maximum entropy) (Phillips et al, 2006). The Maxent model is one of the widely used SDMs that combines species presence and background data (Boria et al, 2014;Kumar et al, 2015a, b;Radosavljevic & Anderson, 2014) to model current, past, or future potential distribution of a species (Latinne et al, 2015;Abdelaal et al, 2019;Abolmaali et al, 2018;Khwarahm, 2020;Li et al, 2020;Shishir et al, 2020).…”