Assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution of Daphne mucronata in Iran

Abstract

Bio19 with 50.5% contribution, followed by Bio8 and Bio2 with 30% and 11.4% contributions, respectively. The best Maxent model included seven variables, 4 feature types (linear, quadratic, product, and hinge), and had a test AUC value of 0.894. The current potential distribution indicated that 8% of Iran's drylands are suitable for growing D. mucronata and this area could decrease to 5.2% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, and 3.1% under RCP 8.5 due to climate change. Our results suggest that D. mucronata may lose overall about 2.8% and 4.9% of its current distribution under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2050. There would be only 0.7 and 0.2% gains under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The species would locally disappear between 1500-and 2000-m elevation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The establishment of some stations for monitoring the changes in transition zone or lost areas especially on the southeastern parts of Zagros Mountain can help in detecting changes in the future. Additionally, stable habitats may be good target areas for future conservation planning. Keywords Climate change • Habitat loss • Maxent • Species distribution modeling • Zagros MountainsHighlights • Daphne mucronata Royle is an important medicinal plant in the Zagros mountains in the Middle East. • About 8% of Iran's drylands are suitable for growing Daphne mucronata. • D. mucronata may lose about 2.8 to 4.9% of its current habitat under future climate scenarios. • The species would locally disappear between 1500 and 2000 m elevation under future climate. • Results can be used to re-introduce D. mucronata and monitor suitable habitats.

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