Potential Distribution Projections for Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The gum acacia Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton (Fabales: Fabaceae) is a drought-tolerant plant belonging to the genus Acacia of the Leguminosae family, possessing significant economic and ecological value. Despite its importance, there is a knowledge gap regarding the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of S. senegal, crucial for the conservation of plant resources and optimizing its use in introductory silviculture. In this study, we selected 23 environmental variables and utilized the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of S. senegal worldwide and simulate the current and future distribution range of S. senegal in Pakistan under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios. The results highlight key environmental factors influencing the distribution of S. senegal, including BIO3 (isothermally), BIO4 (coefficient of seasonal variation of temperature), BIO11 (mean temperature of the coldest season), and BIO12 (annual precipitation). Regions with higher and less fluctuating temperatures exhibit a higher potential for S. senegal distribution. Currently, suitable habitats of S. senegal are concentrated in the southern region of Pakistan, covering provinces such as Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, with highly suitable habitats accounting for 6.06% of the total area. Under the current climatic conditions, this study identifies the spatial patterns of suitable habitats and their concentration in specific regions. With climate change, a notable expansion of suitable habitats towards higher latitudes is observed, with the most significant expansion under the extremely severe climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), reaching 223.45% of the current level. The results of this study enhance our understanding of the dynamics of S. senegal distribution under climate change and offer valuable insights into the long-term introduction of S. senegal for afforestation and soil conservation in Pakistan. This study provides theoretical support for the sustainable development of the local ecosystem and socio-economy, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to adapt to changing climatic conditions.