Predicting Change Propagation in Complex Design

Abstract

In redesign and design for customization, products are changed. During this process a change to one part of the product will, in most cases, result in changes to other parts. The prediction of such change provides a significant challenge in the management of redesign and customization of complex products where many change propagation paths may be possible. This paper reports on an analysis of change behavior based on a case study in Westland Helicopters of rotorcraft design; the development of mathematical models to predict the risk of change propagation in terms of likelihood and impact of change; and the development of a prototype computer support tool to calculate such information for a specific product. With knowledge of likely change propagation paths and their impact on the delivery of the product, design effort can be directed towards avoiding change to “expensive” sub-systems and, where possible, allowing change where it is easier to implement while still achieving the overall changes required.

Industrial evaluation of FBS Linkage – a method to support engineering change management

“…In overview, the algorithm operates by applying intersection and union operators along the change propagation paths to calculate path likelihoods and impacts while excluding self-dependencies and cyclic paths. Full details of the equations are provided in (Simons 2000;Clarkson, Simons, and Eckert 2004;Keller 2007). The algorithm is implemented in the freely available software program Cambridge Advanced Modeller (CAM) (Wynn et al 2010).…”

“…In our past research at the Engineering Design Centre at the University of Cambridge, we have developed the change prediction method (CPM) in close collaboration with our industrial partners (Clarkson, Simons, and Eckert 2004). CPM models a product as a numerical network of its components and applies a stochastic algorithm to calculate the overall strength of component connections and thus the risk of change propagation between components.…”

“…Change initiated in one part of the system tends to have knock-on effects, triggering follow-up changes in other parts. This phenomenon known as change propagation Fricke et al 2000;Clarkson, Simons, and Eckert 2004) is very common to engineering products due to the high interconnectivity between their components. The first change in such a propagation chain is termed initiated change and the rest emergent changes (Eckert, Clarkson, and Zanker 2004).…”

“…In their core, most methods include a product model and a technique to predict and analyse the impact of change propagation. Traditional methods predominantly focus on a single product layer such as the structural or behavioural layer; they include C-FAR (Cohen, Navathe, and Fulton 2000), RedesignIT (Ollinger and Stahovich 2004), and CPM (Clarkson, Simons, and Eckert 2004). CPM models a product as a network of its components, quantifies the direct links between the components, and uses this numeric network to calculate the risk of change propagation between components, considering direct and several steps of indirect propagation.…”

Decomposition analysis of the multidisciplinary coupling in LED System-in-Package design using a DSM and a specification language

“…For instance, Clarkson et al (2004) developed a change prediction method based on the DSM. Chen et al (2007), Li (2010a, b) developed decomposition analysis techniques for this change prediction DSM method.…”