Predicting Adoption of Innovations by Farmers: What is Different in Smallholder Agriculture?

Abstract

Predictions of the speed and extent of adoption of new agricultural practices and technologies are needed to inform decisions and plans in agricultural policy, research and extension. Using an existing tool for predicting the adoption of agricultural innovations in developed countries as the starting point, we identify a number of distinctive features of smallholder agriculture in developing countries that affect agricultural adoption. Additional factors that need to be considered when making predictions of adoption by smallholder populations include: They may be relatively more heterogeneous in their constraints, capabilities, resources, attitudes and priorities; they may be more influenced by particular cultural norms; they may prioritize subsistence over profits; they may be less reliant on agriculture as their primary source of income; they may have relatively high future discount rates; nonlandowner farmers may be less able to capture the benefits resulting from an innovation; and there may be lower and slower diffusion of information across the farming population, with more variable extension quantity and quality.

Understanding Adoption of Innovations and Behavior Change to Improve Agricultural Policy

“…Fostering adoption of improved technologies by smallholder farmers. Llewellyn and Brown (2020) note that the adoption process for smallholder farmers has some important differences from that for larger commercial farmers in developed countries. Researchers studying adoption in developingcountry agriculture need to take account of these distinctive features.…”

“…Decision makers pursue multiple objectives subject to institutional, informational, cognitive, and financial constraints. Predicting adoption , not just explaining past adoption . Llewellyn and Brown () note that most adoption research seeks to understand past adoption decisions, but that there is a need for adoption predictions. They describe several approaches for prediction of adoption, including the ADOPT framework.…”

“…Improvements in predictions. An expanded capacity to predict the likelihood of adoption of innovations can increase the return to public policy, research, and extension efforts (Llewellyn and Brown 2020). It could improve prioritization and targeting of effort and reduce wastage of resources that would otherwise be used to promote innovations with low adoption potential (Pannell and Claassen 2020).…”

“…Some of the papers provide syntheses of well‐researched topics (e.g., Chavas and Nauges ; Huffman ). Others address novel or underresearched issues (e.g., Heiman, Ferguson, and Zilberman 2020; Llewellyn and Brown ). Here we provide an overview of the lessons and messages that emerge from the ten papers.…”

Improving Gender Participation in Agricultural Technology Adoption in Asia: From Rhetoric to Practical Action

“…Agricultural engineers should consider development of intermediate technologies that are relevant to local needs, requiring minimal energy, reducing drudgery, and allowing management and operation by women, to decrease women's workloads but not displace them in their normal employment. Ex ante adoption studies (Llewelyn and Brown ) should also be conducted to provide information to researchers and policy makers on the likely impacts of such technologies to men and women farmers.…”