Predicted Shifts in the Distributions of Atlantic Reef-Building Corals in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract

Many species drive the diversity of ecosystems by adding structural complexity to the environment. In coral reefs, stony corals act as habitat-forming species, increasing niche availability for other organisms. Some coral species play key roles as reef builders due to their abundance or morpho-functional characteristics. Thus, changes in the distributions of these species can entail cascading effects in entire ecosystems. With climate change, many coral species are experiencing shifts in their distributions, threatening the preservation of coral reefs. Here, we projected the current and future distributions of three key reef builders of the Atlantic (Mussismilia hispida, Montastraea cavernosa, and the Siderastrea complex) under three relative concentration pathway scenarios: the most optimistic, the most pessimistic and one moderate scenario (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Our models revealed that all the above species will undergo habitat loss in the future (2100) in the most pessimistic scenario, although new areas could become suitable, including regions in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Additionally, when considering only its actual range of occurrence, M. hispida will lose habitats under all future scenarios. Moreover, in some regions of both the Tropical Northwestern Atlantic (TNA) and the Brazilian coast, these three species could disappear, with detrimental consequences for the associated communities. We highlight the need for an urgent change of course to guarantee functional reefs in the Atlantic in the future.

Heatwaves and a decrease in turbidity drive coral bleaching in Atlantic marginal equatorial reefs

“…Our results and those of previous studies on warming projections in the study area (Soares et al, 2021;Soares et al, 2022) are congruent with recent modeling studies for the year 2100 (Principe et al, 2021). Modeling research with different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and their effects on the future survival distribution of Siderastrea shows effects even on these turbid reefs (Principe et al, 2021). In this regard, modeling analysis indicates that Siderastrea can survive on these equatorial reefs in the optimistic (RCPrepresentative concentration pathway-2.6) and moderate (RCP 4.5) climate change scenarios but will lose the current studied area in the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) (Principe et al, 2021).…”

“…Our results and those of previous studies on warming projections in the study area (Soares et al, 2021;Soares et al, 2022) are congruent with recent modeling studies for the year 2100 (Principe et al, 2021). Modeling research with different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and their effects on the future survival distribution of Siderastrea shows effects even on these turbid reefs (Principe et al, 2021).…”

“…Modeling research with different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and their effects on the future survival distribution of Siderastrea shows effects even on these turbid reefs (Principe et al, 2021). In this regard, modeling analysis indicates that Siderastrea can survive on these equatorial reefs in the optimistic (RCPrepresentative concentration pathway-2.6) and moderate (RCP 4.5) climate change scenarios but will lose the current studied area in the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) (Principe et al, 2021). This is concerning, considering that Siderastrea dominates the majority of coral cover in low-latitude shallow and mesophotic habitats in the South American Reef System (Soares et al, 2017;Soares et al, 2019;Carneiro et al, 2022).…”

Predicting the effects of climate change on deep‐water coral distribution around New Zealand—Will there be suitable refuges for protection at the end of the 21st century?

“…Corals are found from shallow to deep waters and are key species in highly biodiverse and productive ecosystems (Roberts et al, 2009 ). The effects of climate change on shallow‐water (zooxanthellate) coral taxa have been the focus of much research (see review by Hoegh‐Guldberg et al ( 2017 )) and recent studies have predicted the impact of climate change on suitable future habitat for some such corals (e.g., de Oliveira et al, 2019 ; Principe et al, 2021 ). Deep‐water (azooxanthellate) corals (i.e., those predominately found at depths deeper 200 m) are also thought to be under significant threat from climate‐related stressors, through ocean warming and ocean acidification, and their associated changes in the chemical and physical properties of waters in the deep sea (see review by Hebbeln et al ( 2019 ), and recent historical meta‐analysis by Portilho‐Ramos et al ( 2022 )).…”

RECIFS: a centralized geo-environmental database for coral reef research and conservation

“…To identify the drivers and quantify rates coral reef deterioration, researchers can investigate the association between remote sensed environmental data, and in-situ measurements replicated at multiple locations across reef systems. These in-situ measurements can include various ecological surveys, including surveys of coral abundance (e.g., Sully et al, 2022), coral diversity (e.g., Kusumoto et al, 2020), coral bleaching severity (e.g., McClanahan et al, 2020), fish biomass (e.g., Cinner et al, 2016), or the presence/absence of a given reef species (e.g., Förderer et al, 2018; Ottimofiore et al, 2017; Principe et al, 2021). In-situ measurements also include molecular data from populations that represent genetic diversity, which can be used in genotype-environment association (GEA) studies to uncover genetic variants potentially underpinning local adaptation processes (Fuller et al, 2020; Lundgren et al, 2013; Selmoni, Lecellier, Magalon, et al, 2020; Selmoni, Rochat, et al, 2020; Sherman et al, 2020; Thomas et al, 2017).…”