Predicted Growth of Juvenile Trout and Salmon in Four Rivers in England and Wales Based on Past and Possible Future Temperature Regimes Linked to Climate Change

Davidson, Ian; Hazlewood, M.S.; Cove, Richard J.

doi:10.1002/9780470996027.ch28

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 10 publications

(31 reference statements)

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“…The rise in water temperatures observed for the Loire River is consistent with the changes occurring in other European rivers, despite differences in their hydrological regime (Daufresne et al, 2003;Davidson et al, 2006;Mouthon & Daufresne, 2006;Webb & Nobilis, 1995). For the Loire, the water temperatures show significant increases in the spring, summer and winter (Moatar & Gailhard, 2006).…”

Section: Temperature and Flow Rate Datasupporting

confidence: 82%

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Does global warming impact on migration patterns and recruitment of Allis shad (Alosa alosa L.) young of the year in the Loire River, France?

Boisneau

Moatar

Bodin³

et al. 2008

Hydrobiologia

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The hydrological and thermal changes in the Loire River were investigated to test the influence of climatic changes on a short freshwater stage anadromous fish species, Allis shad, for the 1995-2004 period. The mean water temperatures during the adult migration and juvenile growth phases showed significant increase, and mean water flow during these two phases decreased significantly. The period below the threshold of 18°C shortened, and the period between 18°C and the maximum lengthened, while the temperature amounts (number of degree-days) received by aquatic organisms between 18 and 24°C showed an increase. The pattern of young-of-the-year downstream migration was modified. The first day when the juvenile catches reached 5% occurred 17 days earlier at the end of the 1995-2004 period than at the beginning. The first day when the juvenile catches reached 50% was related to the 18°C threshold (reproductive threshold) and the temperature amounts accumulated between the 18 and 20°C thresholds. The year-on-year levels of young-of-theyear abundance showed wide variations, which were not explained by environmental parameters, probably because of the long distance between the study site and the spawning grounds.

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Section: Temperature and Flow Rate Datasupporting

confidence: 82%

“…Water temperature controls physiology and influences phenology, while survival of fish during their early life may be affected by water temperature and water flow rates. This can lead to earlier maturity, change the population age breakdown and generate year class fluctuations (Mann, 1991;Elliott et al, 2000;Davidson et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does global warming impact on migration patterns and recruitment of Allis shad (Alosa alosa L.) young of the year in the Loire River, France?

Boisneau

Moatar

Bodin³

et al. 2008

Hydrobiologia

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“…The freshwater growth model of Elliott et al (1995) and Elliott & Hurley (1997) was also applied to predict growth in the main salmonid‐producing rivers in England and Wales under four climate change scenarios. Growth of Salmo salar and Salmo trutta was predicted to change markedly over the coming decades, depending on the course of climate change (Davidson et al , 2004).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East

Lassalle

Rochard

2009

Global Change Biology

104

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Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.

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“…The elevated flow has also resulted in a reduction in water temperature in the main Dee when compared to the naturalised situation (Hodgson, 1993). However, over the period 1965-1999, there has been a significant (P \ 0.05) increase in mean annual river temperature of 0.02°C year -1 (ANOVA) for details see Davidson et al (2006). This could lead to enhanced growth of the juveniles (Brett, 1979) and salmon migrating to sea at a younger age (Metcalf et al, 1989;Økland et al, 1993).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 93%

Life history changes in Atlantic salmon from the River Dee, Wales

2008

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The change in life history of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) on the River Dee over the last 60 years is described. Over the last 60 years, salmon have shown a change in run timing, the majority currently entering the river between August and October compared with prior to June. This has coincided with a change in the sea age composition, which was dominated by multi-sea winter salmon prior to the 1980s after which the proportion of 1sea-winter fish increased until they now dominate the mature population. Growth rates of salmon in fresh water remained relatively stable until the mid-1980s and then increased. By the end of the 1990s juvenile salmon were, by the end of their first and second year, respectively, *60 and *19%, on average, larger than they were between the late 1930s and mid1980s. This has been reflected in a change in the age composition of smolts where the mean smolt age has declined from *2 years prior to the 1980s to *1.6 years in the late 1990s. There was no observed trend in post-smolt (marine) growth for salmon. Size at return for 1SW salmon appeared stable while there is some evidence of an increase in mean length of 2SW salmon at the end of the 1990s. A steady state life history model was developed which suggests an increase in the instantaneous rate of mortality by 2.9% from 1. 495 year -1 in 1937/1938 to 1.538 year -1 in 1967/1969 and by 21.6% to 1.870 year -1 in 1997/ 1999. This is considered to explain the shift in mean age at maturity from 5.2 to 4.8 to 3.9 years for the three periods examined. There is close agreement between the observed mean age at maturity and that predicted by the model suggesting optimal lifetime reproductive success.

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Predicted Growth of Juvenile Trout and Salmon in Four Rivers in England and Wales Based on Past and Possible Future Temperature Regimes Linked to Climate Change

Cited by 7 publications

References 10 publications

Does global warming impact on migration patterns and recruitment of Allis shad (Alosa alosa L.) young of the year in the Loire River, France?

Does global warming impact on migration patterns and recruitment of Allis shad (Alosa alosa L.) young of the year in the Loire River, France?

Impact of twenty‐first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East

Life history changes in Atlantic salmon from the River Dee, Wales

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