Predicted distribution of a rare and understudied forest carnivore: Humboldt martens (Martes caurina humboldtensis)

Abstract

Background: A suite of mammalian species have experienced range contractions following European settlement and post-settlement development of the North American continent. For example, while North American martens (American marten, Martes americana; Pacific marten, M. caurina) generally have a broad range across northern latitudes, local populations have experienced substantial reductions in distribution and some extant populations are small and geographically isolated. The Humboldt marten (M. c. humboldtensis), a subspecies of Pacific marten that occurs in coastal Oregon and northern California, was recently designated as federally threatened in part due to its reduced distribution. To inform strategic conservation actions, we assessed Humboldt marten occurrence by compiling all known records from their range. Methods: We compiled Humboldt marten locations since their rediscover to present (1,692 marten locations, 1996-2020). We spatially-thinned locations to 500-m to assess correlations with variables across contemporary Humboldt marten distribution (n=384). Using maximum entropy modeling (Maxent), we created distribution models with variables optimized for spatial scale; pre-selected scales were associated with marten ecology (50 to 1170 m radius). Marten locations were most correlated with abiotic factors (e.g., precipitation), which are unalterable and therefore uninformative within the context of restoration or management actions. Thus, we created variables to focus on hypothesized marten habitat relationships, including understory conditions such as predicted suitability of shrub species. Results: Humboldt marten locations were positively associated with increased shrub cover (salal (Gautheria shallon), mast producing trees), increased pine (Pinus sp) overstory cover and precipitation at home-range spatial scales, areas with low and high amounts of canopy cover and slope, and cooler August temperatures. Unlike other recent literature on the species, we found little evidence that Humboldt marten locations were associated with old growth structural indices, perhaps because of a potential mismatch in the association between this index and shrub cover. As with any species distribution model, there were gaps in predicted distribution where Humboldt martens have been located during more recent surveys, for instance the southeastern portion of Oregon's coast range. Conservation efforts and our assessment of potential risks to Humboldt marten populations would benefit from additional information on range extent, population sizes, and fine-scale habitat use. Like many rare and lesser-known species, this case study provides an example of how limited information can provide differing interpretations, emphasizing the need for study-level replication in ecology.

Integrating multi‐method surveys and recovery trajectories into occupancy models

“…For medium to large carnivores, the most common and effective detection methods are camera trapping (Steenweg et al 2017) and scent-detection dog surveys (Orkin et al 2016) or both as complementary methods (Moriarty et al 2018). Detector dogs and camera traps have previously been integrated into presence-based distribution models (Moriarty et al 2021) and occupancy models (Long et al 2011). Nevertheless, presence-based models do not leverage data from non-detections and have reduced inferential capacity as a result (Guillera-Arroita et al 2015).…”