Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia

Sridhar, Venkataramana; Modi, Parthkumar; Billah, Mirza M.; Valayamkunnath, Prasanth; Goodall, Jonathan L.

doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12752

Cited by 24 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…There is a relatively long history of public decision‐making interest in the 100‐year, 24‐h flow event. However, recognition of the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation and floods suggests that using past streamflow events when planning for the future may no longer be appropriate (Milly et al 2008; Sridhar et al 2019). In the NEUS, where both precipitation and temperature have shown increases in frequency and magnitudes, old and aging infrastructures like highways, bridges, and culverts can be extremely vulnerable, particularly those built in large river floodplains like Connecticut and Merrimack.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Local Flood Risks in the U.S. Northeast: A Case Study on the Connecticut and Merrimack River Basins

Siddique

Palmer

2020

J American Water Resour Assoc

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This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on future flows in the main stem of the Connecticut and Merrimack rivers within Massachusetts. The study applies two common climate projections based on (Representative Concentration Pathways), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and downscaled gridded climate projections from 14 global climate models (GCMs) to estimate the 100‐year, 24‐h extreme precipitation events for two future time‐periods: near‐term (2021–2060) and far‐term (2060–2099). 100‐year 24‐h precipitation events at near‐ and far‐term are compared to GCM‐driven historical extreme precipitation events during a base period (1960–1999) and results for RCP 8.5 scenario show average increases between 25%–50% during the near‐term compared to the base period and increases of over 50% during the far‐term. Streamflow conditions are generated with a distributed hydrological model where downscaled climate projections are used as inputs. For the near‐term, the medians of the GCMs using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 suggest 2.9%–8.1% increases in the 100‐year, 24‐h flow event in the Connecticut and an increase of 9.9%–13.7% in the Merrimack River. For the far‐term, the medians of the GCMs using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 suggest a 9.0%–14.1% increase in the Connecticut and 15.8%–20.6% for the Merrimack River. Ultimately, the results presented here can be used as a guidance for the long‐term management of infrastructures on the Connecticut and Merrimack River floodplains.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Local Flood Risks in the U.S. Northeast: A Case Study on the Connecticut and Merrimack River Basins

Siddique

Palmer

2020

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…For instance, Ding et al [10] used the BCC-CSM1.1(m) to produce the model inputs for the simulation of future irrigation water requirements. Sridhar et al [11] employed the BCC-CSM1.1 to reproduce precipitation for trend analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff Predicting and Variation Analysis in Upper Ganjiang Basin under Projected Climate Changes

Deng

Wang

2019

Sustainability

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Catchment runoff is significantly affected by climate condition changes. Predicting the runoff and analyzing its variations under future climates play a vital role in water security, water resource management, and the sustainable development of the catchment. In traditional hydrological modeling, fixed model parameters are usually used to transfer the global climate models (GCMs) to runoff, while the hydrologic model parameters may be time-varying. It is more appropriate to use the time-variant parameter for runoff modeling. This is achieved by incorporating the time-variant parameter approach into a two-parameter water balance model (TWBM) through the construction of time-variant parameter functions based on the identified catchment climate indicators. Using the Ganjiang Basin with an outlet of the Dongbei Hydrological Station as the study area, we developed time-variant parameter scenarios of the TWBM model and selected the best-performed parameter functions to predict future runoff and analyze its variations under the climate model projection of the BCC-CSM1.1(m). To synthetically assess the model performance improvements using the time-variant parameter approach, an index ∆ was developed by combining the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the volume error, the Box-Cox transformed root-mean-square error, and the Kling-Gupta efficiency with equivalent weight. The results show that the TWBM model with time-variant C (evapotranspiration parameter) and SC (water storage capacity of catchment), where growing and non-growing seasons are considered for C, outperformed the model with constant parameters with a ∆ value of approximately 5% and 10% for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The mean annual values of runoff predictions under the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) exhibited a decreasing trend over the future three decades (2021-2050) when compared to the runoff simulations in the baseline period , where the values were about −9.9%, −19.5%, −16.6%, and −11.4% for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The decreasing trend of future precipitation exerts impacts on runoff decline. Generally, the mean monthly changes of runoff predictions showed a decreasing trend from January to August for almost all of the RCPs, while an increasing trend existed from September to November, along with fluctuations among different RCPs. This study can provide beneficial references to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on runoff prediction and thus improve the regional strategy for future water resource management.

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“…Xue et al [19] detail results from the VIC model using downscaled input for this Red River case study. Many other river basin studies have used the VIC model for climate change impact assessments as well [50,51]. Hydrologic projections from the VIC model then were used as input to RiverWare ™ [52], developed by the Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES), to model the river/reservoir system of the Red River Basin.…”

Section: Discussion About Climate Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S.

Bertrand

McPherson

2019

Advances in Meteorology

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Climate models provide information that resource managers, policy makers, and researchers can use when planning for the future. While this information is valuable in the broad sense, the low spatial-resolution often lacks local details that resource managers and decision makers need to plan for their communities. Therefore, statistically downscaled climate projections provide a high-resolution output and offer local information that is more beneficial than coarse-resolution global climate model output. In the Red River Basin, located in the south-central U.S., this detailed information is used to develop long-term water plans. This area is prone to drought conditions and heavy precipitation events, and studies have consistently estimated that this will continue in the future. This paper introduces a dataset of statistically downscaled climate projections of daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation that is a useful tool for studies regarding climatological and hydrological aspects in the region. The dataset was created using two quantile mapping techniques to downscale the CCSM4, MPI-ESM-LR, and MIROC5 model outputs to a 0.1-degree spatial resolution. Furthermore, we describe the added value of coproduction of knowledge between climate scientists and end users, or in this case impacts modelers and decision makers, for creating climate projections that can be used for climate risk assessments. A case study of the data’s development and application is provided, detecting the mean daily changes in temperature and precipitation through the end of the century in the Red River Basin for two representative concentration pathways. After applying the users’ inputs to develop the datasets, results for this example estimate an increase in mean daily precipitation in the eastern portion of the basin and as much as a 15% decline in the west by the end of the century. Furthermore, mean daily temperature is expected to rise across the entire basin in all scenarios by up to 6–7°C.

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Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia

Cited by 24 publications

References 52 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Local Flood Risks in the U.S. Northeast: A Case Study on the Connecticut and Merrimack River Basins

Climate Change Impacts on Local Flood Risks in the U.S. Northeast: A Case Study on the Connecticut and Merrimack River Basins

Runoff Predicting and Variation Analysis in Upper Ganjiang Basin under Projected Climate Changes

Development of Downscaled Climate Projections: A Case Study of the Red River Basin, South-Central U.S.

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