Precautionary Behavior in Response to Perceived Threat of Pandemic Influenza

Sadique, Zia; Edmunds, W. John; Smith, Richard; Meerding, William Jan; Zwart, Onno de; Brug, Johannes; Beutels, Philippe

doi:10.3201/eid1309.070372

Cited by 236 publications

(234 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…However, pessimistic expectations about an epidemic could also influence people's beliefs about the future epidemic, even leading to more risky behavior (Auld, 2003). Individual, voluntary measures such as avoiding public transportation and staying home from work would also influence the transmission (Sadique et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic

2009

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Conventional (static) models used in health economics implicitly assume that the probability of disease exposure is constant over time and unaffected by interventions. For transmissible infectious diseases this is not realistic and another class of models is required, so-called dynamic models. This study aims to examine the differences between one dynamic and one static model, estimating the effects of therapeutic treatment with antiviral (AV) drugs during an influenza pandemic in the Netherlands. Specifically, we focus on the sensitivity of the cost-effectiveness ratios to model choice, to the assumed drug coverage, and to the value of several epidemiological factors. Therapeutic use of AV-drugs is cost-effective compared with non-intervention, irrespective of which model approach is chosen. The findings further show that: (1) the cost-effectiveness ratio according to the static model is insensitive to the size of a pandemic, whereas the ratio according to the dynamic model increases with the size of a pandemic; (2) according to the dynamic model, the cost per infection and the life-years gained per treatment are not constant but depend on the proportion of cases that are treated; and (3) the age-specific clinical attack rates affect the sensitivity of cost-effectiveness ratio to model choice.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic

2009

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“…Whilst this could be instigated by government advice, it is more likely that individuals will remove themselves from work of their own volition in an attempt to avoid infection. Some of the authors were involved in a study to estimate the risk perception and behaviour of individuals [13] and the results of this survey from European respondents suggest that 34% of workers would take prophylactic absenteeism in the event of an influenza pandemic, of which 3.75% were women who had children at school and would therefore overlap with the school closure absenteeism. However, the remaining 30% represent the additional shock due to prophylactic absenteeism.…”

Section: Modelling a Pandemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of these, 3,900,000 are women who are either the head of the household or the spouse of, or cohabiting with, the head of the household and have dependent children in the household\16 years of age. That is, 15.5% of the workforce comprises women who are probably responsible for dependent children [13] and this percentage of the labour supply will therefore be removed from the economy during the weeks of school closure. This assumption does not account for the fact that some parents will continue to work despite having children at home during the pandemic.…”

Section: Modelling a Pandemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands

et al. 2009

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The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.

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“…There has been some related work done in areas such as psychiatry and neurobiology (Leslie 1987;Dulaney and Fiske 1994;Fiske and Haslam 1997;Sack et al 1997;Patel 2001;Oates et al 2004;Szechtman and Woody 2004;Boyer and Liénard 2006;Sadique et al 2007;Kaminer et al 2008;Koenigs et al 2008;Kennedy et al 2009;Zor et al 2009aZor et al , 2009bZor et al , 2010Zor et al , 2011Baillargeon et al 2010;Bateson et al 2011), animal studies (Szechtman et al 1998;Szechtman et al 2001), fear studies (Tooby and Cosmides 1990;LeDoux 2002;Misslin 2003;Yaski et al 2011), developmental psychology (Seligman 1971;Ekman 1972;Buck 1988), and comparative psychology / ethology (Blanchard and Blanchard 1989;Eilam et al 2011;). We aimed to produce experimental data specifically targeted at understanding the hypothesized cognitive mechanisms involved in precautionary thought and behavior.…”

Section: Salience Of Precaution Domainsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Rethinking Conventional Wisdom: Ecological Effects on Potential Danger Preoccupation Salience

2015

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Despite frequent reliance on conventional wisdom (CW) about potential threats in political, policy, intelligence, and other domains, until now there have been few empirical studies addressing the spread, common features, or differences of precautionary preoccupations across ecologies. We describe some of our initial investigations of any significant variation or subordination of dominant potential danger themes within and between populations and ecologies. We hypothesized that ecological triggers and specific cognitive capacities constrain the dominance of particular precautionary themes generally, as well as their variability between distinct populations. Our initial results support these claims by indicating that females, cross-culturally, worried more about predation/assault threats than males (a universal tendency) and that South Africans were more worried about predation/ assault and depletion of resources than their counterparts in the United Kingdom (a variation). Furthermore, non-white South Africans were more worried in all domains when compared to white South Africans.

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Precautionary Behavior in Response to Perceived Threat of Pandemic Influenza

Abstract: Public transportation was regarded as the most risky place and home as the least risky.

Cited by 236 publications

References 12 publications

Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic

Dynamic versus static models in cost‐effectiveness analyses of anti‐viral drug therapy to mitigate an influenza pandemic

The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands

Rethinking Conventional Wisdom: Ecological Effects on Potential Danger Preoccupation Salience

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