The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands

Abstract

The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.

Effect of short-term school closures on the H1N1 pandemic in Japan: a comparative case study

“…Longer closures will interfere with the education of children, with the occupations of their parents, and with social or economic activity [16,[25][26][27]. Our findings suggest that short-term closures, even closures of a few days, effectively decrease the number of infections after the resumption of classes.…”

Influenza virus positivity nd circulating subtypes among cases of influenza-like illness nd severe acute respiratory infection, Egypt, 2012-2015

“…Globally, seasonal influenza kills 250 000-500 000 people annually (3). Seasonal influenza viruses continually circulate causing annual epidemics, mainly during winter months in temperate climates (4). In temperate regions of the northern and southern hemispheres, influenza activity has been well described showing that annual winter epidemics are associated with excess deaths from influenza and pneumonia (1).…”

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda

“…Other studies based on models of developed countries3, 6, 7 have illustrated that relatively mild pandemics can have notable economic effects and that the drivers of economic effects appear to be school closures (of 4‐week duration and longer), prophylactic absence and behavioural change, none of which have been modelled in this study.…”

“…The duration of absence due to influenza, like the previous parameters, has three possibilities: low (4 days), moderate (5 days), high (6 days), and absence does not allow for weekends but assumes all days lost are working days. A 264‐day working year is/was assumed (resulting from a 6‐day working week) which differs from the 5‐day working week assumed for the UK in the previous studies 3, 7, 8. This proxies the greater importance of the grey/informal labour sector in developing countries.…”