Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

Paşaoğlu, Güzay; Honselaar, Michel; Thiel, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.025

Cited by 137 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Although the issue of GHG abatement through vehicle fleet renewal and electrification receives considerable attention from scientists [23,29,31], extensive literature reviews have shown no example of another approach to automobile market forecasting equivalent to ours. It appears to be unique in combining the following three features: (i) Nested logit modelling is applied to a disaggregate set of complete nationwide new vehicle sales data over an extended period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

Østli

Fridstrøm

Johansen

et al. 2017

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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Purpose The introduction of novel fuel and propulsion technologies, such as battery, (plug-in) hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles, and the need to combat the exhaust emission of local and global pollutants from the passenger car fleet have enhanced the political interest in the vehicle purchase choices made by private households and firms, and in how these choices can be influenced through fiscal and regulatory penalties and incentives. Methods As a tool to understand and analyse such questions, we have developed a generic nested logit model of automobile choice, based on complete disaggregate vehicle sales data for Norway for the period ranging from January 1996 until July 2011. The data set contains 1.6 million vehicle transactions. Results Being sensitive to changes in the vehicle purchase tax and the fuel tax, the model discriminates well between various fiscal policy scenarios. In using the model for such purposes, one is greatly helped by the fact that the model distinguishes between price changes due to taxation and those originating from the manufacturing or marketing side. Conclusions The strongly CO 2 graduated vehicle purchase tax, with exemptions granted for battery electric vehicles, is shown to have a major impact on the average type approval rate of CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars registered in Norway. The fuel tax also helps induce car customers to buy low emission vehicles.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

Østli

Fridstrøm

Johansen

et al. 2017

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The whole WTW cycle is comprised of two independent stages. These include: I) a well-to-tank stage (WTT), which includes the recovery or production of the feedstock for the fuel, transportation and storage of the energy source through conversion of the feedstock to the fuel, and the subsequent transportation, storage, and distribution of the fuel to the vehicle tank, and II) a tank-towheels stage (TTW), which refers to the vehicle operation activities throughout its lifetime [24][25][26][27][28]. Regarding energy consumption and GHG emissions, the WTT part of the whole life cycle represents only about 15% of WTW total impact [29].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Belgrade’s Urban Transport CO2 Emissions from an International Perspective

Jovanovic¹

2016

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Focusing on the implementation of increas ingly strict energy and emission standards, the effect of the rapid increase in the use of motor vehicles on the degree of air pollution and energy consumption is completely neglected. All recent technological improvements and changes in the transport sector: sub stitution of fuels, increased use of diesel vehicles, direct gasoline injection, supercharg ing, electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, etc., cannot offset massive growth in traffi c, combined with signifi cantly heavier, more powerful, more luxurious and thus more fuel-consuming vehicles. Hence, in this paper we focused on the carbon emissions and energy consumption of urban transport in Belgrade from an international perspective. Although the level of automobile CO 2 emissions in Belgrade is still very low at 228 CO 2 kg/per capita, due to the low volume of automobile passenger kilometres (1,502 pkm), the fact must not be overlooked that automobile mobility is of major importance to the total level of energy consumption in urban transport, and this can change surprisingly quickly. Only if Belgrade adopts transport and spatial development strategies similar to those applied by wealthy Asian metropolises at a similar stage of development is there high probability that its total urban transport CO 2 emissions will stop at a reasonable level of around 700-800 kg CO 2 /per capita. Belgrade can prevent a dramatic increase in CO 2 emissions and energy consumption (and mitigate the negative local environmental effects of traffi c congestion, traffi c accidents, and air pollution), only if it:1. Implements a more decisive strategy to limit private vehicle use while its level of car passenger km (PKT) is still relatively low. 2. Does not try to solve its transport problems only by trying to build urban road infrastructure (bridges and ring roads). 3. Concentrates on more CO 2 and energy-effi cient urban transport systems, while at the same time …. 4. Developing urban rail systems (metro or LRT) with exclusive tracks that are immune to traffi c congestion on urban streets.

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“…The share of EV is still marginal. Pasaoglu et al [39] expect that an EV share of 10% is possible. For the WTW emissions in 2050, we used the results of a scenario analysis [40] which estimated the exhaust emissions of different energy types.…”

Section: The Reference Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

2017

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This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society's mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a 'business as usual' case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required.

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Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

Cited by 137 publications

References 15 publications

A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

Belgrade’s Urban Transport CO2 Emissions from an International Perspective

Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

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