Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models

Holy, Marcel; Schmidt, Günther; Schröder, Winfried

doi:10.1007/s11356-010-0388-x

Cited by 18 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Other common types of risk maps included clinical case incidence (n = 21, 19%) and vector density or breeding sites (n = 14, 13%). Less commonly, risk was mapped according to estimated values of metrics such as the basic reproductive number R 0 [ 25 ], the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) [ 15 , 26 , 27 ], and malariogenic potential [ 28 ] (the risk of malaria transmission, determined by importation and transmission potential [ 29 ]); Noor et al mapped historical levels of prevalence as proxies for the baseline risk that would exist in the absence of control measures in Namibia [ 30 ], Somalia [ 31 ], and Sudan [ 32 ].…”

Section: Malaria Risk Mapping In Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

Cohen

Menach

Pothin

et al. 2017

Malar J

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There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

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Section: Malaria Risk Mapping In Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

Cohen

Menach

Pothin

et al. 2017

Malar J

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“…Current antimalarial interventions lead to a reduction in the basic rate of malaria reproduction by reducing human infectivity with early and effective treatment and reducing vector capacity by mos-quito control measures [40]. However, when taking into account such changes of environmental and social patterns, such as increased migration to cities with subsequent increase in health conditions, climate change and shifting disease patterns, wider access to wireless technologies (cellular phones and the Internet), innovative surveillance and response are also highly accessible in remote areas where people live under poor conditions [30,41]. The capacity of surveillance and response is fuelled by heightened awareness of the importance of national core capacities for surveillance and response demonstrated by adoption of the International Health Regulations [42].…”

Section: The Role Of Surveillance and Response In Disease Eliminationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Elimination of tropical disease through surveillance and response

Bergquist²,

2013

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Surveillance and response represent the final crucial steps in achieving effective control and particularly elimination of communicable diseases as recognized in the area of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), applied in increasing numbers in endemic countries with ongoing control and elimination programmers. More and more national NTD elimination initiatives are scheduled based on the innovative and effective One world-One health perspective to detect pockets of transmission and disease reintroduction. Resource-constrained countries, which carry the heaviest NTD burdens, face various challenges how to strengthen the health system as well as developing effective and novel tools for surveillance and response tailored to local settings. Surveillance-response approaches take place in two different stages corralling the basic components of the surveillance-response system for NTD elimination. Six different research priorities have been identified:1)dynamic mapping of transmission, 2) near real-time capture of population dynamics, 3) modelling based on a minimum essential database/dataset, 4) implementation of mobile health (m-health) and sensitive diagnostics, 5) design of effective response packages tailored to different transmission settings and levels, and 6) validation of approaches and responses packages.

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“…The changes of average temperature, extreme weather events, such as drought and heavy precipitation, and the duration of seasons also affect the geographic distribution and intensity of transmission of infectious diseases [2–4]. People in developing countries, particularly in tropical areas, are likely to suffer most from climate change due to poverty, poor sanitation, poor health status, high population density, poor health care systems, and political instability that are influenced by the limited ability of health care systems to respond to an increase in the burden of climate-sensitive outcomes [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature during pregnancy influences the fetal growth and birth size

et al. 2017

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BackgroundBirth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. However, it is uncertain which meteorological element has an effect on birth outcomes and which timing of pregnancy would explain such effect. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine temperature effects during pregnancy and which timing of pregnancy has effects on size at birth.MethodsA large, randomized, controlled trial of food and micronutrient supplementation for pregnant women was conducted in Matlab, Bangladesh (MINIMat Study), where women were enrolled from November 2001 to October 2003. The fetal growth data which included the size at birth and information of their mothers were obtained (n = 3267). Meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and daily sunshine hours during pregnancy were observed at the nearest observatory site of Bangladesh Meteorological Department.ResultsInfants born in colder months (November–January) were shorter than those born in hot and dry, and monsoon months (mean (SD) of birth length was 47.5 cm (2.2) vs. 47.8 cm (2.1) vs. 47.9 cm (2.1) respectively; P < 0.001). Increased temperature during the last month of pregnancy was significantly related with increased birth length with adjustment for gestational weeks and the season at birth, and remained significant with further adjustments for precipitation, sex of infants, maternal early-pregnancy BMI, parity, and education status of the mother (P < 0.01). On the other hand, increased temperature at mid-gestation was associated with increased birth weight (P < 0.05).ConclusionsThese findings suggest that temperature affects both birth weight and length. The more temperature increased at the last month of pregnancy, birth length became longer. For birth weight, the temperature at mid-pregnancy affected in a positive way.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s41182-016-0041-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models

Cited by 18 publications

References 34 publications

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

Elimination of tropical disease through surveillance and response

Temperature during pregnancy influences the fetal growth and birth size

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