Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Campbell, John L.; Shinneman, Douglas J.

doi:10.1186/s13717-017-0073-9

Cited by 16 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…Our results add to accumulating evidence that when recruitment of a tree species is sensitive to post‐fire weather, recruitment tends to decline given increasing aridity (Harvey et al. , Campbell and Shinneman , Tepley et al. , Urza and Sibold , Stevens‐Rumann et al.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…) and does not readily increase in areas where climatic suitability is apparently increasing (Zhu et al. , Campbell and Shinneman , Liang et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Shive et al. ), may contribute substantially to tree species range contraction (Campbell and Shinneman ). Climate change and management legacies are expected to result in increases in the amount of contiguous severely burned areas with no seed sources (Stevens et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…). Simulation models (Campbell and Shinneman , Liang et al. ) and projections based on contemporary climate associations (Tepley et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Post‐fire forest regeneration shows limited climate tracking and potential for drought‐induced type conversion

Young

Werner

Welch

et al. 2019

Ecology

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Disturbance such as wildfire may create opportunities for plant communities to reorganize in response to climate change. The interaction between climate change and disturbance may be particularly important in forests, where many of the foundational plant species (trees) are long‐lived and where poor initial tree establishment can result in conversion to shrub‐ or graminoid‐dominated systems. The response of post‐disturbance vegetation establishment to post‐disturbance weather conditions, particularly to extreme weather, could therefore provide useful information about how forest communities will respond to climate change. We examined the effect of post‐fire weather conditions on post‐fire tree, shrub, and graminoid recruitment in fire‐adapted forests in northern California, USA, by surveying regenerating vegetation in severely burned areas 4–5 yr after 14 different wildfires that burned between 2004 and 2012. This time period (2004–2016) encompassed a wide range of post‐fire weather conditions, including a period of extreme drought. For the most common tree species, we observed little evidence of disturbance‐mediated community reorganization or range shifts but instead either (1) low sensitivity of recruitment to post‐fire weather or (2) weak but widespread decreases in recruitment under unusually dry post‐fire conditions, depending on the species. The occurrence of a single strong drought year following fire was more important than a series of moderately dry years in explaining tree recruitment declines. Overall, however, post‐fire tree recruitment patterns were explained more strongly by long‐term climate and topography and local adult tree species abundance than by post‐fire weather conditions. This observation suggests that surviving adult trees can contribute to a “biological inertia” that restricts the extent to which tree community composition will track changes in climate through post‐disturbance recruitment. In contrast to our observations in trees, we observed substantial increases in shrub and graminoid establishment under post‐fire drought, suggesting that shifts in dominance between functional groups may become more likely in a future with more frequent and intense drought.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…) and does not readily increase in areas where climatic suitability is apparently increasing (Zhu et al. , Campbell and Shinneman , Liang et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…). Simulation models (Campbell and Shinneman , Liang et al. ) and projections based on contemporary climate associations (Tepley et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Post‐fire forest regeneration shows limited climate tracking and potential for drought‐induced type conversion

Young

Werner

Welch

et al. 2019

Ecology

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“…This suggests that to better understand how forests will respond to climate change, explicit attention to both climate and disturbance is necessary (cf. Campbell and Shinneman , Stralberg et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Living on the edge: trailing edge forests at risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest

et al. 2019

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Forests are an incredibly important resource across the globe, yet they are threatened by climate change through stressors such as drought, insect outbreaks, and wildfire. Trailing edge forests—those areas expected to experience range contractions under a changing climate—are of particular concern because of the potential for abrupt conversion to non‐forest. However, due to plant‐climate disequilibrium, broad‐scale forest die‐off and range contraction in trailing edge forests are unlikely to occur over short timeframes (<~25–50 yr) without a disturbance catalyst (e.g., wildfire). This underscores that explicit attention to both climate and disturbance is necessary to understand how the distribution of forests will respond to climate change. As such, we first identify the expected location of trailing edge forests in the intermountain western United States by mid‐21st century. We then identify those trailing edge forests that have a high probability of stand‐replacing fire and consider such sites to have an elevated risk of fire‐facilitated transition to non‐forest. Results show that 18% of trailing edge forest and 6.6% of all forest are at elevated risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest in the intermountain western United States by mid‐21st century. This estimate, however, assumes that fire burns under average weather conditions. For a subset of the study area (the southwestern United States), we were able to incorporate expected fire severity under extreme weather conditions. For this spatial subset, we found that 61% of trailing edge forest and 30% of all forest are at elevated risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest under extreme burning conditions. However, due to compounding error in our process that results in unknowable uncertainty, we urge caution in a strict interpretation of these estimates. Nevertheless, our findings suggest the potential for transformed landscapes in the intermountain western United States that will affect ecosystem services such as watershed integrity, wildlife habitat, wood production, and recreation.

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Wildfire facilitates upslope advance in a shade‐intolerant but not a shade‐tolerant conifer

Brodie

Stewart

Winsemius

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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show abstract

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Cited by 16 publications

References 91 publications

Post‐fire forest regeneration shows limited climate tracking and potential for drought‐induced type conversion

Post‐fire forest regeneration shows limited climate tracking and potential for drought‐induced type conversion

Living on the edge: trailing edge forests at risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest

Wildfire facilitates upslope advance in a shade‐intolerant but not a shade‐tolerant conifer

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