Drought effects on carbon cycling The response of forest ecosystems to drought is increasingly important in the context of a warming climate. Anderegg et al. studied a tree-ring database of 1338 forest sites from around the globe. They found that forests exhibit a drought “legacy effect” with 3 to 4 years' reduced growth following drought. During this postdrought delay, forests will be less able to act as a sink for carbon. Incorporating forest legacy effects into Earth system models will provide more accurate predictions of the effects of drought on the global carbon cycle. Science , this issue p. 528

SummaryClimate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects -bark beetles and defoliators -which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

Drought, a recurring phenomenon with major impacts on both human and natural systems, is the most widespread climatic extreme that negatively affects the land carbon sink. Although twentieth-century trends in drought regimes are ambiguous, across many regions more frequent and severe droughts are expected in the twenty-first century. Recovery time-how long an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state-is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we analyse three independent datasets of gross primary productivity and show that, across diverse ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: first, that recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes (both vulnerable areas of Earth's climate system) and second, that drought impacts (assessed using the area of ecosystems actively recovering and time to recovery) have increased over the twentieth century. If droughts become more frequent, as expected, the time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink.

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Aim Quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) has the largest natural distribution of any tree native to North America. The primary objectives of this study were to characterize range-wide genetic diversity and genetic structuring in quaking aspen, and to assess the influence of glacial history and rear-edge dynamics.Location North America.Methods Using a sample set representing the full longitudinal and latitudinal extent of the species' distribution, we examined geographical patterns of genetic diversity and structuring using 8 nuclear microsatellite loci in 794 individuals from 30 sampling sites.Results Two major genetic clusters were identified across the range: a southwestern cluster and a northern cluster. The south-western cluster, which included two subclusters, was bounded approximately by the Continental Divide to the east and the southern extent of the ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum to the north. Subclusters were not detected in the northern cluster, despite its continent-wide distribution. Genetic distance was significantly correlated with geographical distance in the south-western but not the northern cluster, and allelic richness was significantly lower in south-western sampling sites compared with northern sampling sites. Population structuring was low overall, but elevated in the south-western cluster.Main conclusions Aspen populations in the south-western portion of the range are consistent with expectations for a historically stable edge, with low within-population diversity, significant geographical population structuring, and little evidence of northward expansion. Structuring within the southwestern cluster may result from distinct gene pools separated during the Pleistocene and reunited following glacial retreat, similar to patterns found in other forest tree species in the western USA. In aspen, populations in the southwestern portion of the species range are thought to be at particularly high risk of mortality with climate change. Our findings suggest that these same populations may be disproportionately valuable in terms of both evolutionary potential and conservation value.

We document high rates of triploidy in aspen (Populus tremuloides) across the western USA (up to 69% of genets), and ask whether the incidence of triploidy across the species range corresponds with latitude, glacial history (as has been documented in other species), climate, or regional variance in clone size. Using a combination of microsatellite genotyping, flow cytometry, and cytology, we demonstrate that triploidy is highest in unglaciated, drought-prone regions of North America, where the largest clone sizes have been reported for this species. While we cannot completely rule out a low incidence of undetected aneuploidy, tetraploidy or duplicated loci, our evidence suggests that these phenomena are unlikely to be significant contributors to our observed patterns. We suggest that the distribution of triploid aspen is due to a positive synergy between triploidy and ecological factors driving clonality. Although triploids are expected to have low fertility, they are hypothesized to be an evolutionary link to sexual tetraploidy. Thus, interactions between clonality and polyploidy may be a broadly important component of geographic speciation patterns in perennial plants. Further, cytotypes are expected to show physiological and structural differences which may influence susceptibility to ecological factors such as drought, and we suggest that cytotype may be a significant and previously overlooked factor in recent patterns of high aspen mortality in the southwestern portion of the species range. Finally, triploidy should be carefully considered as a source of variance in genomic and ecological studies of aspen, particularly in western U.S. landscapes.

Climate−tree growth relationships recorded in annual growth rings have recently been the basis for projecting climate change impacts on forests. However, most trees and sample sites represented in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) were chosen to maximize climate signal and are characterized by marginal growing conditions not representative of the larger forest ecosystem. We evaluate the magnitude of this potential bias using a spatially unbiased tree-ring network collected by the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. We show that U.S. Southwest ITRDB samples overestimate regional forest climate sensitivity by 41–59%, because ITRDB trees were sampled at warmer and drier locations, both at the macro- and micro-site scale, and are systematically older compared to the FIA collection. Although there are uncertainties associated with our statistical approach, projection based on representative FIA samples suggests 29% less of a climate change-induced growth decrease compared to projection based on climate-sensitive ITRDB samples.

Understanding the driving mechanisms behind existing patterns of vegetation hydraulic traits and community trait diversity is critical for advancing predictions of the terrestrial carbon cycle because hydraulic traits affect both ecosystem and Earth system responses to changing water availability. Here, we leverage an extensive trait database and a long-term continental forest plot network to map changes in community trait distributions and quantify “trait velocities” (the rate of change in community-weighted traits) for different regions and different forest types across the United States from 2000 to the present. We show that diversity in hydraulic traits and photosynthetic characteristics is more related to local water availability than overall species diversity. Finally, we find evidence for coordinated shifts toward communities with more drought-tolerant traits driven by tree mortality, but the magnitude of responses differs depending on forest type. The hydraulic trait distribution maps provide a publicly available platform to fundamentally advance understanding of community trait change in response to climate change and predictive abilities of mechanistic vegetation models.