Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain, Iran

Zamanirad, Mahtab; Sedghi, Hossein; Sarraf, Amirpouya; Saremi, Ali; Rezaee, Payman

doi:10.1007/s12665-018-7585-1

Cited by 20 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…A review of the time series of the Qanat data between 2008 and 2018 indicates that the mean annual discharge of the Qanat water system has declined nearly by 50%. This declining value mostly is due to climate change and the overloaded consumption of groundwater in Iran (Zamanirad et al 2018;Khaneiki 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficiency assessment of the environmental variables in the Qanat systems based on major hydrological basins in Iran

Daneshvar¹,

Ebrahimi

Ahmadi

2023

Appl Water Sci

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Qanat system, as a great human heritage, contributes to the sustainable management of groundwater in the arid and semiarid regions of the world. The main aim of this paper was to efficiency assessment of the environmental variables in the construction of the Qanat system in Iran. Using the geographical information system (GIS) and statistical method of receiver operation characteristic (ROC), the efficiency of 20 environmental variables was assessed based on divisions of 30 major hydrological basins. Results revealed that most physical parameters and anthropogenic characteristics have significant effects on the construction of Qanat water lines with an AUC index > 0.6. The Pearson correlation test also confirmed the positive and significant relationships between the Qanat system and mentioned environmental parameters. From a geological viewpoint, the results highlighted the effective role of Quaternary aged alluvial sediments with very high permeability and low density of crust rocks in arid soils of arid and semiarid regions, such as playa fields in NamakTehran, Kavir, Lut, and Siahkuh basins. Regarding the spatial expansion of the Qanat system in Iran, the higher effects of some test variables, such as the climatic element of temperature, fault density, and drainage density, were rejected due to poor discrimination values of the AUC index < 0.6.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficiency assessment of the environmental variables in the Qanat systems based on major hydrological basins in Iran

Daneshvar¹,

Ebrahimi

Ahmadi

2023

Appl Water Sci

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“…The CC analysis showed that the maximum decrease in the water supply would occur in the West Asia and North Africa region (El-Beltagy and Madkour 2012). The CC is forecast to exacerbate already existing water scarcity challenges in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran (Abbaspour et al 2009;Zamanirad et al 2018). About 90% of Iran's agricultural products are harvested from irrigated lands (Agricultural Statistical Yearbook 2018), where crop water demand cannot be met by rainwater, and irrigation is used to supplement the crop's water needs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Wheat Production Potential Under Near-future Climate Change in Arid Regions of Northeast Iran

Saberali

Shirmohammadi-Aliakbarkhani

Nasrabadi

2022

Preprint

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Water scarcity is the key challenge in arid regions, which exacerbates under climate change (CC) and must be considered to assess the impacts of CC on cropping systems. A climate-crop modelling approach was employed by using the CSM-CERES-Wheat model in some arid regions of northeast Iran to project the effects of CC on irrigated wheat production. Current climate data for 1990-2019 and climate projections of three climate models for 2021–2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were used to run the crop model. Two irrigation scenarios with different irrigation efficiencies were also simulated to investigate the impacts of water scarcity associated with changing climate and irrigation management on wheat productivity. Results indicated that mean temperature is projected to increase at the rates of 1.74–2.73 °C during the reproductive growth period of winter wheat over the study areas. The precipitation projections also indicated that the precipitation rates would decrease over most of the wheat-growing period. The length of the vegetative growth period will extend in some regions and shorten in others under the near future climate. However, the grain filling duration will reduce by about 2–4 days across all regions. The mean seasonal PET is expected to decrease by about 11 mm from 2021 to 2050 over the study areas. A mean overall reduction in winter wheat yield due to future climate conditions would be about 12.3 % across the study areas. However, an increase of 15-30% in the irrigation efficiency will be able to offset yield reductions associated with limited water supply under future climate scenarios. The results suggest that CC will exacerbate limited irrigation water availability, so implementing high-efficiency irrigation systems should be a priority to adapt to climate change in an arid cropping system.

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“…Groundwater provides about one-third of the global freshwater. The availability and sustainability of groundwater resources in many basins or plains in the world are in danger because of climatic stresses (Brekke, 2009;Wang and Ding, 2003;Famiglietti, 2014;Xu et al 2016;Fu et al 2020) and excessive human water withdrawals (Moeck et al 2016;Zhang et al 1997;Crosbie et al 2013;Panwar and Chakrapani, 2013;Charlier et al 2015;Zamanirad et al 2018;Cui et al 2018;Liu et al 2018;Nourani et al 2018;El Asri et al 2019;Fu et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and anthropological impacts on a karst aquifer: a multi- statistical assessment

Mahdavi

Samani

2022

Preprint

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Many karst aquifers are the sole source of municipal (drinking) water in Iran. The purpose of this study is to detect trends in rainfall and temperature series as climate variables and the groundwater level time series as a hydrologic variable to assess the anthropogenic and climate change impact on the strategic Sarbalesh aquifer in Fars province, Iran, employing the Mann-Kendall (MK) and modified MK tests, the combination of discrete wavelet transform (DWT), MK, and Sequential MK analyses, and the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney (PMW) and Cumulative sum methods. The MK and MMK tests analyses showed a significant declining trend in the groundwater level and a negative/positive trend in the rainfall/temperature series, particularly in the annual series at the 5% level of significance. The time series were decomposed into the approximation (A) and details (Ds) sub-signals by the DWT. The dominant periodicities contributing to the production of trend in the original series were found by comparing the approximate equality of the MK Z-values, the correlation coefficient, and the likeness of the Sequential MK curves of the original data and their respective A + Ds components. The monthly rainfall, temperature, and groundwater series showed 8-month, 8-month, and 64-month prominent periodicities, respectively. The annual rainfall, temperature, and groundwater series exhibited the prominent periodicities of 4-year, 2-year, and 8-year, respectively. By PMW and Cumulative sum approaches, we detected abrupt shifts (change points) in the studied time series. The same change year point in the rainfall series and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) series and the negative correlation between rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles indicated that the climate change and hence the La Niño phenomenon increased SOI after the change year led to a decrease in precipitation from November to April in the study area. Our multi-statistical approach proved that the drastic decline in groundwater level is due to the continuous over-exploitation of water storage from the aquifer in the last 32 years and reduced rainfall and increased temperature (particularly in the annual series) have triggered the declining trend. Our analysis provides an elaborate view of future hydro-climatic conditions, it can be used as a foundation for designing and planning water resources within the study area and elsewhere.

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Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain, Iran

Cited by 20 publications

References 48 publications

Efficiency assessment of the environmental variables in the Qanat systems based on major hydrological basins in Iran

Efficiency assessment of the environmental variables in the Qanat systems based on major hydrological basins in Iran

Simulating Wheat Production Potential Under Near-future Climate Change in Arid Regions of Northeast Iran

Climate change and anthropological impacts on a karst aquifer: a multi- statistical assessment

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