Potential Impact of Climate Change on Pandemic Influenza Risk

Curseu, D.; Popa, Maria; Sîrbu, Dana; Stoian, I.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-1017-2_45

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…This can occur, for example, when regions become warmer and wetter, thereby providing suitable habitats for disease vectors such as mosquitos and birds. It has been predicted that the outbreaks of numerous kinds of disease may become more prevalent as a result of climate change, including influenza, dengue, cholera, and malaria ( Chowdhury, Nur, Hassan, von Seidlein, & Dunachie, 2017 ; Curseu, Popa, Sirbu, & Stoian, 2010 ; Hertig, 2019 ; Watts et al, 2019 ). Some outbreaks have the potential of becoming the next pandemic.…”

Section: The Relationship Between Climate Change and Pandemicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anxiety disorders, climate change, and the challenges ahead: Introduction to the special issue

Taylor

2020

Journal of Anxiety Disorders

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Highlights Climate change involves extreme weather events and more gradual climatic changes. Anxiety to climate change can be either adaptive or maladaptive. Adaptive anxiety can motivate climate activism. Widescale programs are needed to build individual and community resilience. Widescale programs are needed to treat disorders arising from climatic stressors.

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Section: The Relationship Between Climate Change and Pandemicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anxiety disorders, climate change, and the challenges ahead: Introduction to the special issue

Taylor

2020

Journal of Anxiety Disorders

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“…However, there is little evidence so far for direct or indirect impact of temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks [11,12], except for a few indoor experimental studies [13,14,15], in which the temperature was manipulated and kept constant. HPAI H5N1 outbreaks are suspected to be related to environmental temperature that interacts with many other important factors such as bird contact structure [16], host-pathogen interactions (e.g., virulence and immunity), and other environmental conditions [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2014

IJERPH

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The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 °C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.

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“…The magnitudes of damages caused by human-induced climate changes are more dangerous than its quantitative effects, as it is irreversible [ 109 ]. As climate change, diversity of disease vectors is increasing and they are spreading to new geographic zones.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

What can we learn from previous pandemics to reduce the frequency of emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19?

2020

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The global risks report of 2020 stated, climate-related issues dominate all of the top-five long-term critical global risks burning the planet and according to the report, “as existing health risks resurge and new ones emerge, humanity's past successes in overcoming health challenges are no guarantee of future results.” Over the last few decades, the world has experienced several pandemic outbreaks of various pathogens and the frequency of the emergence of novel strains of infectious organisms has increased in recent decades. As per expert opinion, rapidly mutating viruses, emergence and re-emergence of epidemics with increasing frequencies, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be increasing over the years and the trends will continue and intensify. Susceptible disease hosts, anthropogenic activities and environmental changes contribute and trigger the ‘adaptive evolution’ of infectious agents to thrive and spread into different ecological niches and to adapt to new hosts. The overarching objective of this paper is to provide insight into the human actions which should be strictly regulated to help to sustain life on earth. To identify and categorize the triggering factors that contribute to disease ecology, especially repeated emergence of disease pandemics, a theory building approach, ‘Total Interpretive Structural Modeling’ (TISM) was used; also the tool, ‘Impact Matrix Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification’ analysis (MICMAC) was applied to rank the risk factors based on their impacts on other factors and on the interdependence among them. This mathematical modeling tool clearly explains the strength, position and interconnectedness of each anthropogenic factor that contributes to the evolution of pathogens and to the frequent emergence of pandemics which needs to be addressed with immediate priority. As we are least prepared for another pandemic outbreak, significant policy attention must be focused on the causative factors to limit emerging outbreaks like COVID 19 in the future.

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Pandemic Influenza Risk

Cited by 20 publications

References 25 publications

Anxiety disorders, climate change, and the challenges ahead: Introduction to the special issue

Anxiety disorders, climate change, and the challenges ahead: Introduction to the special issue

Evaluating the Impact of Environmental Temperature on Global Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Outbreaks in Domestic Poultry

What can we learn from previous pandemics to reduce the frequency of emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19?

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