Potential Geographical Distributions of the Fruit Flies <I>Ceratitis capitata</I>, <I>Ceratitis cosyra</I>, and <I>Ceratitis rosa</I> in China

Abstract

There have been relatively few attempts to model the distributions of the fruit flies Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), Ceratitis cosyra (Walker), and Ceratitis rosa Karsch in China, but the geographic distributions of these species are of considerable concern in terms of biosecurity. In this study, two different modeling methods (genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction [GARP] and maximum entropy species distribution modeling [Maxent]) were used to predict the potential distributions of these three fly species in China, by using distribution records and a set of environmental predictor variables. The results showed that Maxent performed well, compared with modeling by GARP, at each test threshold. For all three species, the results predicted by Maxent agreed with the observed distributions in Africa and in other parts of the world. In China, C. capitata seems to have the highest number of favorable habitat areas, relative to C. cosyra and C. rosa, i.e., Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, Sichuan and Chongqing, whereas C. cosyra has the smallest range of suitable areas, i.e., Yunnan, some parts of Hainan and Sichuan. The suitable areas for C. rosa are mainly restricted to Yunnan, Hainan, southern Guangdong, and a few areas of Sichuan. The indications are that on the whole, Southwest and South China are the areas with the highest risk for establishment from these three fly species. Jackknife tests reveal that environmental variables associated with temperature have the strongest influence on the potential distributions of all three species relative to other variables.

Validation of a geographic weighted regression analysis as a tool for area-wide integrated pest management programs for Ceratitis capitata Wiedemann (Diptera: Tephritidae) on Terceira Island, Azores

“…Knowing where pest populations are in time and space is indispensable information needed to effectively plan, implement and evaluate area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) programmes (Hendrichs et al 2007), and because of this awareness there is a never-ending search for the best tool to fill the spatial gaps between the sampling points in order to get the most efficient overview of the pest status and even to predict when and where future outbreaks will occur. Li et al (2009), and Lux (2013) have achieved this goal by using stochastic models where, according to the authors, they obtained results suitable to support decision making.…”

“…In addition to pest aggregation and host-plant pest relationships, weather conditions such temperature, air humidity and rain fall (soil humidity) will also have an impact on the Medfly lifecycle and its ability to disperse (Bodenheimer 1951;Liu et al 1995;Papadopoulos et al 2001;Powell 2003;Estay et al 2009;Li et al 2009;Pimentel 2010). …”

Evaluating correlative and mechanistic niche models for assessing the risk of pest establishment

“…We used the most commonly employed correlative niche model, MaxEnt (version 3.3.3k; Phillips et al 2006). MaxEnt is a presence-only method and recent studies on distribution modeling of insect pests and other species in different parts of the world have demonstrated its effectiveness (e.g., Kumar et al 2009, Li et al 2009, De Meyer et al 2010. MaxEnt generates an estimate of the probability of presence (or relative environmental suitability) of a species that varies from 0 (lowest) to 1 (highest).…”

“…These variables were chosen based on the fly's biology and ecological requirements, and similar niche modeling studies on other fruit flies and insects (e.g., Li et al 2009, De Meyer et al 2010, Sambaraju et al 2012. These variables included climatic, topographic, and species-specific phenology variables as well as human factors.…”

Risk of Introducing Exotic Fruit Flies, <I>Ceratitis capitata</I>, <I>Ceratitis cosyra</I>, and <I>Ceratitis rosa</I> (Diptera: Tephritidae), Into Southern China

“…dongÕs climate is highly suitable for production of many fruit varieties, which could potentially serve as hosts for exotic fruit ßy pests (Li et al 2009); and more than half of Guangdong is forested, with many of additional plant species that could serve as fruit ßy hosts (Forestry Administration of Guangdong 2007, Cheng and Li 2008). These factors indicate that establishment and spread of these three fruit ßy species in Guangdong are likely if they are introduced.…”