Risk of Introducing Exotic Fruit Flies, <I>Ceratitis capitata</I>, <I>Ceratitis cosyra</I>, and <I>Ceratitis rosa</I> (Diptera: Tephritidae), Into Southern China

Abstract

Exotic fruit flies (Ceratitis spp.) are often serious agricultural pests. Here, we used, pathway analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of introduction of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), Ceratitis cosyra (Walker), and Ceratitis rosa Karsch, into southern China with fruit consignments and incoming travelers. Historical data, expert opinions, relevant literature, and archives were used to set appropriate parameters in the pathway analysis. Based on the ongoing quarantine/ inspection strategies of China, as well as the interception records, we estimated the annual number of each fruit fly species entering Guangdong province undetected with commercially imported fruit, and the associated risk. We also estimated the gross number of pests arriving at Guangdong ports with incoming travelers and the associated risk. Sensitivity analysis also was performed to test the impact of parameter changes and to assess how the risk could be reduced. Results showed that the risk of introduction of the three fruit fly species into southern China with fruit consignments, which are mostly transported by ship, exists but is relatively low. In contrast, the risk of introduction with incoming travelers is high and hence deserves intensive attention. Sensitivity analysis indicated that either ensuring all shipments meet current phytosanitary requirements or increasing the proportion of fruit imports sampled for inspection could substantially reduce the risk associated with commercial imports. Sensitivity analysis also provided justification for banning importation of fresh fruit by international travelers. Thus, inspection and quarantine in conjunction with intensive detection were important mitigation measures to reduce the risk of Ceratitis spp. introduced into China.

Scientific opinion on the import of Musa fruits as a pathway for the entry of non‐EU Tephritidae into the EU territory

“…Indeed, Li et al. (2010), who analysed pathways for non‐native fruit flies (i.e. Tephritidae) into southern China, found that the risk of introducing fruit flies with passengers was high when compared to that of introducing fruit flies with fruit imported by sea.…”

“…According to Meurisse et al (2019), Diptera rank second, after Sternorrhyncha hemipterans, in the list of the most frequent insect orders unintentionally transported in passenger baggage. Indeed, Li et al (2010), who analysed pathways for non-native fruit flies (i.e. Tephritidae) into southern China, found that the risk of introducing fruit flies with passengers was high when compared to that of introducing fruit flies with fruit imported by sea.…”

Evidence that recent climatic changes have expanded the potential geographical range of the Mediterranean fruit fly

“…Li et al . 16 developed a Maxent model for C. capitata focusing on China. Gutierrez and Ponti 12 estimated the invasive potential of C. capitata in California and Italy with the application of a physiologically based demographic system model (CASAS), examining the effect of observed and incrementally increased temperatures.…”

“…The MaxEnt model of Li et al . 16 was trained on distribution records that included ephemeral populations in northern France. This led to model results suggesting that northern Scotland and parts of Greenland were suitable for C. capitata to establish.…”

“…The more liberal GARP and PCA models of De Meyer et al 15 , indicated that the potential distribution of C. capitata in Europe could extend (unrealistically) throughout most of Europe, into Scandinavia. The MaxEnt model of Li et al 16 was trained on distribution records that included ephemeral populations in northern France. This led to model results suggesting that northern Scotland and parts of Greenland were suitable for C. capitata to establish.…”