Potential future climate effects on mountain hydrology, stream temperature, and native salmonid life history

MacDonaldRyan, J; BoonSarah,; ByrneJames, M; RobinsonMike, D; RasmussenJoseph, B

doi:10.1139/cjfas-2013-0221

Cited by 37 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Furthermore, the magnitude and timing of snowmelt in mountainous regions are predicted to respectively decrease and shift earlier (Barnett, Adam, & Lettenmaier, ). These mechanisms contribute to the warming of mountain streams, and modeling studies are generally in agreement with this (Ficklin, Stewart, & Maurer, ; MacDonald, Boon, Byrne, Robinson, & Rasmussen, ; Null, Viers, Deas, Tanaka, & Mount, ; Wenger et al, ). However, recent empirical evidence suggests that cold mountain streams have actually been resilient to climatic change in recent years or decades (Luce et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 58%

Influence of a rock glacier spring on the stream energy budget and cold‐water refuge in an alpine stream

Harrington

Kurylyk

2017

Hydrological Processes

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The thermal regimes of alpine streams remain understudied and have important implications for cold‐water fish habitat, which is expected to decline due to climatic warming. Previous research has focused on the effects of distributed energy fluxes and meltwater from snowpacks and glaciers on the temperature of mountain streams. This study presents the effects of the groundwater spring discharge from an inactive rock glacier containing little ground ice on the temperature of an alpine stream. Rock glaciers are coarse blocky landforms that are ubiquitous in alpine environments and typically exhibit low groundwater discharge temperatures and resilience to climatic warming. Water temperature data indicate that the rock glacier spring cools the stream by an average of 3 °C during July and August and reduces maximum daily temperatures by an average of 5 °C during the peak temperature period of the first two weeks in August, producing a cold‐water refuge downstream of the spring. The distributed stream surface and streambed energy fluxes are calculated for the reach along the toe of the rock glacier, and solar radiation dominates the distributed stream energy budget. The lateral advective heat flux generated by the rock glacier spring is compared to the distributed energy fluxes over the study reach, and the spring advective heat flux is the dominant control on stream temperature at the reach scale. This study highlights the potential for coarse blocky landforms to generate climatically resilient cold‐water refuges in alpine streams.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 58%

Influence of a rock glacier spring on the stream energy budget and cold‐water refuge in an alpine stream

Harrington

Kurylyk

2017

Hydrological Processes

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“…Configuration 2 exhibits less sensitivity to seasonal GST variability than Configuration 1 (Figure ), thus the difference between the slopes representing mean annual and mean summer data in Figure is not as pronounced for Configuration 2 (0.60–0.51=0.09) as it is for Configuration 1 (0.95–0.57=0.38). Figure also indicates that, contrary to the assumptions made in other approaches [e.g., Meisner et al ., ; Deitchman and Loheide , ; MacDonald et al ., ], climate‐induced changes to groundwater discharge temperature will not necessarily follow AT changes on a mean annual or seasonal basis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on the temperature and magnitude of groundwater discharge from shallow, unconfined aquifers

Kurylyk

MacQuarrie

Voss

2014

Water Resources Research

144

115

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Cold groundwater discharge to streams and rivers can provide critical thermal refuge for threatened salmonids and other aquatic species during warm summer periods. Climate change may influence groundwater temperature and flow rates, which may in turn impact riverine ecosystems. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the timing, magnitude, and temperature of groundwater discharge from small, unconfined aquifers that undergo seasonal freezing and thawing. Seven downscaled climate scenarios for 2046-2065 were utilized to drive surficial water and energy balance models (HELP3 and ForHyM2) to obtain future projections for daily ground surface temperature and groundwater recharge. These future surface conditions were then applied as boundary conditions to drive subsurface simulations of variably saturated groundwater flow and energy transport. The subsurface simulations were performed with the U.S. Geological Survey finite element model SUTRA that was recently modified to include the dynamic freeze-thaw process. The SUTRA simulations indicate a potential rise in the magnitude (up to 34%) and temperature (up to 3.6 C) of groundwater discharge to the adjacent river during the summer months due to projected increases in air temperature and precipitation. The thermal response of groundwater to climate change is shown to be strongly dependent on the aquifer dimensions. Thus, the simulations demonstrate that the thermal sensitivity of aquifers and baseflow-dominated streams to decadal climate change may be more complex than previously thought. Furthermore, the results indicate that the probability of exceeding critical temperature thresholds within groundwater-sourced thermal refugia may significantly increase under the most extreme climate scenarios.

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“…Over the last few decades, physically based catchment hydrological models have become increasingly flexible and user-friendly and now have the potential to properly integrate climatological and land use controls for predictive purposes (MacDonald, Boon, Byrne, Robinson, & Rasmussen, 2014;Van Vliet et al, 2013). Here, we simulated rainfall-run-off dynamics in the Girnock through coupling the well-known physically based distributed hydrological model (MIKE SHE), with a one-dimensional in-stream hydraulic model (MIKE 11).…”

Section: Catchment Hydrology and Flow Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating process‐based flow and temperature models to assess riparian forests and temperature amelioration in salmon streams

Fabris

Malcolm

Buddendorf

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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The importance of riparian tree cover in reducing energy inputs to streams is increasingly recognized in schemes to mitigate climate change effects and protect freshwater ecosystems. Assessing different riparian management strategies requires catchment‐scale understanding of how different planting scenarios would affect the stream energy balance, coupled with a quantitative assessment of spatial patterns of streamflow generation. Here, we use the physically based MIKE SHE model to integrate simulations of catchment‐scale run‐off generation and in‐stream hydraulics with a heat transfer model. This was calibrated to model the spatio‐temporal distribution of hourly stream water temperature during warm low flow periods in a Scottish salmon stream. The model was explored as a “proof of concept” for a tool to investigate the effects of riparian management on high stream water temperatures that could affect juvenile Atlantic salmon. Uncertainty was incorporated into the assessment using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach. Results showed that by decreasing both the warming (daylight hours) and the cooling (night‐time hours) rates, forest cover leads to a reduction of the temperature range (with a delay of the time to peak by up to 2 hr) and can therefore be effectively used to moderate projected climate change effects. The modelling presented here facilitated the quantification of potential mitigating effects of alternative riparian management strategies and provided a valuable tool that has potential to be utilized as an evidence base for catchment management guidance.

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Potential future climate effects on mountain hydrology, stream temperature, and native salmonid life history

Cited by 37 publications

References 61 publications

Influence of a rock glacier spring on the stream energy budget and cold‐water refuge in an alpine stream

Influence of a rock glacier spring on the stream energy budget and cold‐water refuge in an alpine stream

Climate change impacts on the temperature and magnitude of groundwater discharge from shallow, unconfined aquifers

Integrating process‐based flow and temperature models to assess riparian forests and temperature amelioration in salmon streams

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