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Summer water temperatures are rising in many river systems in North America, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the coming decades. Cold-water fish may alleviate thermal stress in summer by aggregating in discrete cold-water plumes that provide thermal refuge from high ambient river temperatures. Reliance on cold-water thermal refugia is expected to increase in a warming climate, and many river reaches already lack suitable thermal refugia as a result of an absence of thermal diversity. A comprehensive fish management strategy could proactively address this imminent threat to cold-water fish populations across North America by preserving existing thermal refugia, augmenting thermal anomalies to improve performance as refugia, and creating new thermal refugia in uniformly warm river reaches. We provide practical recommendations on how these measures can be accomplished based on insight derived from recent research focused on the Miramichi River, New Brunswick. Opportunities include limiting land use change, construction aggregate extraction (e.g. sand and gravel pits), and groundwater pumping/consumption. Existing thermal anomalies can be enhanced by controlling advective thermal mixing between cold-water tributaries and the river mainstem flow, installing riparian shading, and adding temporary structures for protection from avian predators. New refugia can be created by temporarily pumping groundwater to discrete points within the river during periods of thermal stress. These concepts are discussed in the context of a comprehensive thermal refugia management strategy. Copyright

Cold groundwater discharge to streams and rivers can provide critical thermal refuge for threatened salmonids and other aquatic species during warm summer periods. Climate change may influence groundwater temperature and flow rates, which may in turn impact riverine ecosystems. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the timing, magnitude, and temperature of groundwater discharge from small, unconfined aquifers that undergo seasonal freezing and thawing. Seven downscaled climate scenarios for 2046-2065 were utilized to drive surficial water and energy balance models (HELP3 and ForHyM2) to obtain future projections for daily ground surface temperature and groundwater recharge. These future surface conditions were then applied as boundary conditions to drive subsurface simulations of variably saturated groundwater flow and energy transport. The subsurface simulations were performed with the U.S. Geological Survey finite element model SUTRA that was recently modified to include the dynamic freeze-thaw process. The SUTRA simulations indicate a potential rise in the magnitude (up to 34%) and temperature (up to 3.6 C) of groundwater discharge to the adjacent river during the summer months due to projected increases in air temperature and precipitation. The thermal response of groundwater to climate change is shown to be strongly dependent on the aquifer dimensions. Thus, the simulations demonstrate that the thermal sensitivity of aquifers and baseflow-dominated streams to decadal climate change may be more complex than previously thought. Furthermore, the results indicate that the probability of exceeding critical temperature thresholds within groundwater-sourced thermal refugia may significantly increase under the most extreme climate scenarios.

Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for cold-water fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short-term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to longterm climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warming of the shallow subsurface. The temperature of shallow groundwater is particularly important for the thermal regimes of groundwater-dominated streams and rivers. Also, recent studies have investigated how land surface perturbations, such as wildfires or timber harvesting, can influence stream temperatures by changing stream surface heat fluxes, but these studies have typically not considered how these surface disturbances can also alter shallow groundwater temperatures and streambed heat fluxes.In this study, several analytical solutions to the onedimensional unsteady advection-diffusion equation for subsurface heat transport are employed to estimate the timing and magnitude of groundwater temperature changes due to seasonal and long-term variability in land surface temperatures. Groundwater thermal sensitivity formulae are proposed that accommodate different surface warming scenarios. The thermal sensitivity formulae suggest that shallow groundwater will warm in response to climate change and other surface perturbations, but the timing and magnitude of the subsurface warming depends on the rate of surface warming, subsurface thermal properties, bulk aquifer depth, and groundwater velocity. The results also emphasize the difference between the thermal sensitivity of shallow groundwater to short-term (e.g., seasonal) and longterm (e.g., multi-decadal) land surface-temperature variability, and thus demonstrate the limitations of using short-term air and water temperature records to project future stream warming. Suggestions are provided for implementing these formulae in stream temperature models to accommodate groundwater warming.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.