Potential future climate change effects on global reptile distributions and diversity

Abstract

AimUntil recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptile distributions at a global scale.LocationGlobal, excluding AntarcticaTime period1995, 2050, 2080Major taxa studiedReptilesMethodsWe performed species distribution models for 6296 reptile species and assessed potential global as well as realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climatic space and species-specific changes in distribution and range extent and overlap, under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact of 3768 non-modeled species, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modeled and non-modeled species.ResultsReptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographic realms, with the strongest decrease in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm, but moist regions, which were projected to shift further to climate extremes in the future. Extents of occurrence were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between projected current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominating global poleward shift. Non-modeled species were significantly stronger affected by climatic changes than modeled species.Main conclusionsReptile richness was projected to decrease significantly across most parts of the world with ongoing future climate change. This effect is visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike and has considerable impact on species’ extent of occurrence (EOO) and range distribution. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting, this is cause for concern. Given the historical lack of information on global reptile distributions, this calls for an re-assessment of global conservation efforts towards reptile species, with specific focus on anticipated future climatic changes.

Range dynamics of Walterinnesia morgani (Serpentes, Elapidae) during climatic oscillations in Iran

“…Reptiles, although they account for one-third of global terrestrial vertebrate diversity, have lagged behind other groups, such as birds and mammals, in terms of ecological studies (Biber et al 2023). Due to the fact that reptiles are typically characterized by specific habitat needs and limited vagility (Guedes et al 2018), understanding their spatial distribution is crucial.…”