Potential elevation shift of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) in Hyrcanian mixed forest ecoregion under future global warming

Limaki, Mahdieh Khalatbari; Nimvari, Majid Eshagh; Alavi, Seyed Jalil; Mataji, A A; Kazemnezhad, Farid

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109637

Cited by 9 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Furthermore, we found that for both PA and PT, the proportion of small trees increased larger with increasing elevation (Figure 3c,d ), indicating that the Pinus species tend to migrate to higher altitudes (Figure 3 ). Khalatbari Limaki et al ( 2021 ) reported that the effects of climate change on species distributions usually result in a shift of species to higher altitudes and latitudes, suggesting that environments with much sunshine and exposed soil could be important drivers for the establishment and survival of small trees. However, shrubs and small trees in high‐altitude forests are usually sparse and weakly competitive; accordingly, we found that small trees showed low survival at low altitudes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent decades, climate change has severely affected biodiversity and associated ecological processes (Sintayehu, 2018 ). However, climate change can alter the distributions of tree species and cause significant declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions as tree species shift in distribution toward higher latitudes and altitudes (Khalatbari Limaki et al, 2021 ). The study of dominant congeneric species is a well‐established approach for revealing the ecological mechanisms underlying biodiversity maintenance in complex ecosystems (Losos, 2010 ; Vleminckx et al, 2018 ) because congeners have similar tolerance limits for similar environmental conditions due to their close phylogenetic relationship (Darwin, 1864 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disentangling the effects of species interactions and environmental factors on the spatial pattern and coexistence of two congenericPinusspecies in a transitional climatic zone

Yang

Ying

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Congeneric species are critical for understanding the underlying ecological mechanisms of biodiversity maintenance. Ecological mechanisms such as conspecific negative density dependence, species differences in life‐history stages related to habitat preference, and limiting similarity are known to influence plant fitness, thereby influencing species coexistence and biodiversity. However, our understanding of these phenomena as they apply to coexistence among coniferous species is limited. We studied two congeneric Pinus species, Pinus armandii (PA) and Pinus tabulaeformis (PT), both of which are common pioneer species typically succeeded by oaks ( Quercus ), in a 25‐ha warm temperate deciduous broad‐leaved forest. Here, we addressed the following questions: (1) How do population structures and distributions patterns of these two Pinus species vary with respect to different life‐history stages? (2) Does intra‐ and interspecific competition vary with respect to three life‐history stages? And (3) What are the relative contributions of topographic and soil variables to the spatial distributions of the species across the three life‐history stages? In addressing these questions, we utilized the pair‐correlation function g(r), redundancy analysis (RDA), variance partitioning (VP), and hierarchical partitioning (HP) to identify habitat preferences and conspecific negative density dependence at different life‐history stages from small to large trees. The results revealed that in both Pinus species, individuals in different life‐history stages were subject to significant habitat heterogeneity, with a tendency for small trees to be distributed at higher latitudes that may be represents climate‐change‐driven migration in both species. In addition, the effects of conspecific negative density dependence on PT were stronger than those on PA due to limited dispersal in PT. Furthermore, we found that interspecific competition was weak due to the species differences in resource utilization and preference for key habitats. Our study shows that congeneric Pinus species avoids competition by exploiting distinct habitats and provides insight into forest community structure.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling the effects of species interactions and environmental factors on the spatial pattern and coexistence of two congenericPinusspecies in a transitional climatic zone

Yang

Ying

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Contrary to thermophilous and generalist species which tend to increase in future, the majority of declining species are situated specifically in the montane and upper montane belts (i.e., cold‐adapted plants; see Table 2) (see Gholizadeh et al, 2020), which agrees with the suggestion that plant species would be more sensitive to climate change at high‐elevation locations due to higher rate of habitat loss and a restricted niche range (Engler et al, 2011; Lenoir et al, 2008; Zellweger et al, 2020). For plants growing at higher elevations, there is the possibility to shift their distribution to higher above tree line (e.g., Alavi et al, 2019; Gates, 1993; Khalatbari Limaki et al, 2021; Lenoir et al, 2008; Shirk et al, 2018; Walther et al, 2002), but they risk extinction if they escape the forest (e.g., Keller et al, 2000). Since the Hyrcanian forests are located on a relatively narrow strip, any distribution shift that may be required in response to climate change could lead to the loss of a large part of suitable habitat.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the Hyrcanian forests are located on a relatively narrow strip, any distribution shift that may be required in response to climate change could lead to the loss of a large part of suitable habitat. This is particularly true for important woody species of the Hyrcanian forests such as Taxus baccata and Fagus orientalis with predicted shrinking habitats (Alavi et al, 2019; Khalatbari Limaki et al, 2021; Taleshi et al, 2019). Nevertheless, some mountain species such as Cystopteris fragilis (ferns), Carex digitata (graminoid), and Digitalis nervosa , Campanula glomerata and Silene italica (forbs) benefit from future climate change likely due to more light affinity and their topographically isolated microhabitats buffering climate change (see De Frenne et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Climate Scenarios and Understorey Species: The Majori...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The combined effects of climate and canopy cover changes on understorey plants of the Hyrcanian forest biodiversity hotspot in northern Iran

Naqinezhad

Lombaerde

Gholizadeh

et al. 2021

Global Change Biology

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Understanding forest understorey community response to environmental change, including management actions, is vital given the understorey's importance for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning. The Natural World Heritage Hyrcanian temperate forests (Iran) provide an ideal template for furnishing an appreciation of how management actions can mitigate undesired climate change effects, due to the forests' broad environmental gradients, isolation from colonization sources and varied light environments. We used records of 95 understorey plant species from 512 plots to model their probability of occurrence as a function of contemporary climate and soil variables, and canopy cover. For 65 species with good predictive accuracy, we then projected two climate scenarios in the context of either increasing or decreasing canopy cover, to assess whether overstorey management could mitigate or aggravate climate change effects. Climate variables were the most important predictors for the distribution of all species. Soil and canopy cover varied in importance depending on understorey growth form. Climate change was projected to negatively affect future probabilities of occurrence. However, management, here represented by canopy cover change, is predicted to modify this trajectory for some species groups. Models

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Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

Sękiewicz

Danelia

Fazaliyev³

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Predicting species‐level effects of climatic changes requires unraveling the factors affecting the spatial genetic composition. However, disentangling the relative contribution of historical and contemporary drivers is challenging. By applying landscape genetics and species distribution modeling, we investigated processes that shaped the neutral genetic structure of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis), aiming to assess the potential risks involved due to possible future distribution changes in the species. Using nuclear microsatellites, we analyze 32 natural populations from the Georgia and Azerbaijan (South Caucasus). We found that the species colonization history is the most important driver of the genetic pattern. The detected west–east gradient of genetic differentiation corresponds strictly to the Colchis and Hyrcanian glacial refugia. A significant signal of associations to environmental variables suggests that the distinct genetic composition of the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian stands might also be structured by the local climate. Oriental beech retains an overall high diversity; however, in the context of projected habitat loss, its genetic resources might be greatly impoverished. The most affected are the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian populations, for which the detected genetic impoverishment may enhance their vulnerability to environmental change. Given the adaptive potential of range‐edge populations, the loss of these populations may ultimately affect the specie's adaptation, and thus the stability and resilience of forest ecosystems in the Caucasus ecoregion. Our study is the first approximation of the potential risks involved, inducing far‐reaching conclusions about the need of maintaining the genetic resources of Oriental beech for a species' capacity to cope with environmental change.

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Potential elevation shift of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) in Hyrcanian mixed forest ecoregion under future global warming

Cited by 9 publications

References 39 publications

Disentangling the effects of species interactions and environmental factors on the spatial pattern and coexistence of two congenericPinusspecies in a transitional climatic zone

Disentangling the effects of species interactions and environmental factors on the spatial pattern and coexistence of two congenericPinusspecies in a transitional climatic zone

The combined effects of climate and canopy cover changes on understorey plants of the Hyrcanian forest biodiversity hotspot in northern Iran

Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

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