Potential Economic Impacts of the Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Eastern Canada

Abstract

The Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) continues to pose a significant risk to deciduous forests around the world. We assess Asian longhorned beetle-related risks in eastern Canada by generating current and future climate suitability maps, import-based likelihood of introduction estimates for each urban center in our study area, and potential economic impacts in both urban and natural settings. For the current period, climatic suitability for Asian longhorned beetle was highest in southern Ontario, but was projected to expand significantly northward and eastward by midcentury. High likelihood of Asian longhorned beetle introduction was associated with large urban centers, but also smaller centers with high levels of pest-associated imports. Potential costs for the removal and replacement of Asian longhorned beetle-impacted street trees ranged from CDN$8.6 to $12.2 billion, with the exact amount and city-level ranking depending on the method used to calculate risk. Potential losses of merchantable maple (Acer) timber were estimated at CDN$1.6 billion using provincial stumpage fees and CDN$431 million annually when calculated using a combination of economic and forestry product statistics. The gross value of edible maple products, which could potentially be affected by Asian longhorned beetle, was estimated at CDN$358 million annually. These values can help inform the scale of early detection surveys, potential eradication efforts, and research budgets in the event of future Asian longhorned beetle introductions.

Preventing invasions of Asian longhorn beetle and citrus longhorn beetle: are we on the right track?

“…For the small ALB outbreak in Cornuda, Italy, Faccoli and Gatto (2016) estimated that during the first year of the eradication program, the ornamental value of the saved trees was six times higher than the eradication costs. Pedlar et al (2020) estimated that the annual costs of inaction in an ALB outbreak in Eastern Canada could exceed CDN$12 billion (considering street tree-related costs, standing timber value and maple food products), which contrasts with an annual control expenditure of approximately 5% of this value (CDN$0.5 billion).…”

Climate‐based ensemble modelling to evaluate the global distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky)

“…For example, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model is one of the most popular correlative models, which predicts the potential location of species occurrence based on machine learning with presence-only data (Phillips et al, 2006;Elith et al, 2011); thus, it has been utilized for both insects and plants (Byeon et al, 2018a). For A. glabripennis, this modelling program has been used to evaluate the potential economic impact of this species on eastern Canada (Pedlar et al, 2020) and the risk of spread in Massachusetts, U.S.A. (Shatz et al, 2016). By contrast, CLIMEX is a semi-dynamic modelling tool that performs a prediction of species distribution by interactively considering regional climate and species biology (Kriticos et al, 2015), with application for evaluating the national-scale climatic suitability of A. glabripennis (MacLeod et al, 2002;Shim et al, 2020).…”

Assessing the climate suitability and potential economic impacts of Oak wilt in Canada

“…These estimates were obtained from forest attribute grids 13 , by summing merchantable volume of (1) oak and (2) all broadleaf species within the industrial forestry limits of each province. Spatial summaries were carried out using the raster and rgdal packages in r. Though admittedly coarse, we felt this approach was the best available given the dearth of readily available economic data for individual tree species/genera; similar approaches have been used previously to estimate economic impacts of invasive species 46 , 47 .…”