Postponement and recuperation of Belgian fertility: how are they related to rising female educational attainment?

Abstract

Fertility trends in Europe after 1970 are routinely referred to in terms of the postponement of fertility. The shortening of the effective reproductive lifespan and its association with post-materialist values have raised questions as to whether fertility can or will be recuperated. Decomposition of cohort fertility in Belgium by level of education shows that the postponement of fertility after 1970 is closely related to the expansion of education: compared with cohorts born in [1946][1947][1948][1949][1950] 40 to 50 per cent of the difference in cumulated fertility at age 25 in the 1951-1975 birth cohorts is attributable to rising educational levels. Educational differentials also prove relevant with regard to the recuperation of fertility at older ages as the tempo and quantum of order-specific fertility have responded differently to variations in the economic and policy context, depending on the educational level considered. Differential fertility trends by level of education have thus attenuated the relationship between female educational attainment and completed fertility in recent cohorts.

Educational differences in timing and quantum of childbearing in Britain

“…Survey data suggest that childlessness in the UK is largely involuntary since relatively few women (or indeed men) of any educational level report that they intend to have no children (Ni Bhrolchain, Beaujouan, and Berrington 2010;Berrington and Pattaro 2011;Berrington in press). The UK situation contrasts with the narrowing of educational differences in childlessness in other European countries, mostly due to an increase in levels of childlessness among lower-educated women (van Agtmaal-Wobma and van Huis 2008; Andersson et al 2009;Neels and De Wachter 2010). Potential explanations for divergent patterns of childlessness by education across countries include the relative accessibility of career opportunities for women, policies facilitating the combination of work and family formation; contraceptive methods that provide an alternative to childbearing; differing educational trends in the timing of marriage and/or cohabitation between countries; and social attitudes towards childlessness (Hobcraft andKiernan 1995, Sobotka 2012;Wood, Neels, and Kil 2014).…”

“…Increased education has an impact on childbearing through enrolment and human capital effects. Current enrolment in education is consistently associated with a decreased likelihood of childbearing (Blossfeld and Huinink 1991) and research has highlighted the importance of the increasing age at leaving education on the postponement of first births (Neels and De Wachter 2010;Ni Bhrolchaín and Beaujouan 2012). Increased educational attainment is generally assumed to exert a downward pressure on achieved fertility; for example, as a result of increased female emancipation and desire for personal fulfilment (Van de Kaa 1987, Kravdal 1992Lesthaeghe 1998), and an increase in the economic opportunity costs of leaving the labour market to care for children (Becker and Lewis 1973;Becker 1981).…”

“…This is mainly due to the very large sample sizes required in order to make such analyses. The small number of studies that have examined fertility postponement and recuperation at the individual level according to education have relied either on population register or census data (Andersson et al 2009;Neels and De Wachter 2010). In this paper we exploit a newly created time series of fertility histories collected between 1979 and 2009, which provides a sufficiently large sample to examine changing educational differences in fertility dynamics in Britain.…”

Future Fertility in Low Fertility Countries

“…In the Nordic countries, the fertility gradient by level of education has almost disappeared for women, and parity progression ratios to a second and third child are positively associated with women's education level (Kravdal and Rindfuss, 2008;Andersson et al 2009;Tesching 2012). In Belgium, Neels and De Wachter (2010) reported crossovers in fertility and education association, with above-average completed fertility found among women with tertiary education born in the 1950s. There are also difference by parity, with Adsera (2011b) observing a U-shaped relationship between educational attainment and third births across the EU.…”

A reassessment of the effects of female education and employment on fertility in Nigeria

“…However, in some societies, especially in Western countries, the irreconcilability of female labour force participation and childbearing has begun to diminish owing to policies that encourage the compatibility of women participation in labour force and childbearing (Vikat 2004;Hilgeman and Butts 2009). Hence, Neels and Wachter (2010) in their literature review suggest that the relationship between labour force participation and fertility varies from one society to another. But in sub-Saharan Africa, to a large extent, such encouraging policies do not exist and at present might not even find justification because of the high-fertility regime prevailing.…”