Post-Disaster Spillovers: Evidence from Iranian Provinces

Fischer, Sven

doi:10.3390/jrfm14050193

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Figure 4 compares the actual employment level and growth since 2009 with the counterfactual employment scenario for various economic sectors. The benefit is significant within the construction sector, supporting similar observations by Fischer (2021) and Kunreuther and Fiore (1966), to a lesser extent, services within the economy (Gundes 2011).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

“…This study finds evidence that aligns with the existing literature on the path of economic growth during the recovery, namely that the stimulus injection provides a period of increasing economic activity (Chhibber & Laajaj 2008;Fischer 2021;Klomp 2016). While the duration for elevated employment transition remains in place for 10 years, growth revealed increasing return for 5 years, followed by a period of declining return (growth).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…This, supported by a sizable construction industry in the city, led to the fast recovery. A similar result from a recent study by Fischer (2021) in Iran found that earthquakes benefit construction jobs in the adjacent regional economies and provide a source of labour to the affected area.…”

Section: Disasters and The Economysupporting

confidence: 75%

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The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery

Dyason

2023

Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences

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Orientation: Large-scale events such as disasters, wars and pandemics disrupt the economy by diverging resource allocation, which could alter employment growth within the economy during recovery.Research purpose: The literature on the disaster–economic nexus predominantly considers the aggregate performance of the economy, including the stimulus injection. This research assesses the employment transition following a disaster by removing this stimulus injection and evaluating the economy’s performance during recovery.Motivation for the study: The underlying economy’s performance without the stimulus’ benefit remains primarily unanswered. A single disaster event is used to assess the employment transition to guide future stimulus response for disasters.Research approach/design and method: Canterbury, New Zealand, was affected by a series of earthquakes in 2010–2011 and is used as a single case study. Applying the historical construction–economic relationship, a counterfactual level of economic activity is quantified and compared with official results. Using an input–output model to remove the economy-wide impact from the elevated activity reveals the performance of the underlying economy and employment transition during recovery.Main findings: The results indicate a return to a demand-driven level of building activity 10 years after the disaster. Employment transition is characterised by two distinct periods. The first 5 years are stimulus-driven, while the 5 years that follow are demand-driven from the underlying economy. After the initial period of elevated building activity, construction repositioned to its long-term level near 5% of value add.Practical/managerial implications: The level of building activity could be used to confidently assess the performance of regional economies following a destructive disaster. The study results argue for an incentive to redevelop the affected area as quickly as possible to mitigate the negative effect of the destruction and provide a stimulus for the economy.Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to a growing stream of regional disaster economics research that assesses the economic effect using a single case study.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

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The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery

Dyason

2023

Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences

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“…As shown in Figure 6, the flooding between March and April of 2019 killed 76 people and moved more than 220,000 people into emergency shelters. The incident impacted 14,000 kilometres of road and destroyed 700 bridges, costing the country between 2.5 and 3.6 billion dollars [13]. By advancing its developments in renewable energies and lowering its oil extraction, Iran could have the chance to prevent negative impacts on its economy besides the other countries.…”

Section: Benefits Of Renewable Energy For Iranmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of hydrocarbons and renewable energies in Iran's energy matrix focusing on bioenergy: review

Mahdavi

Schmitt

Ramos

et al. 2022

IET Renewable Power Gen

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Iran is one of the most potent energy exporters and fastest‐growing energy consumers in the world. Its large amount of energy exported can directly impact the economy of importer countries. Iran's energy matrix mostly consists of hydrocarbons, while the remaining portion is compounded by a blend of biofuels, hydropower, wind, solar, and other renewable sources. Even though the country has an excellent potential to reach a large amount of renewable power, it is most likely that Iran will deal with a shortage in its electricity segment during the upcoming years. Besides wind and solar energy, bioenergy appears to be a good alternative for enhancing the country's energy matrix and transit Iran's energy consumption pattern from a high‐level usage of hydrocarbons to a more renewable scenario. Therefore, in the present paper, the role of Iran in global energy production is discussed, and its potential for renewable energy generation is described. The review presents a vast set of data related to environmental, infrastructural, economic, and social aspects to clarify the potential and benefits of Iran's transition to a more renewable energy matrix. The investigations revealed the country's extremely favourable conditions to use bioenergy resources as a key solution to avoiding future energy crises, besides improving quality of life. The context can help researchers, power suppliers, and energy consumers know how renewable energies, especially bioenergy, can modify the energy matrix of a country rich in hydrocarbon resources.

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“…The nexus between economic growth and natural disasters continues to receive attention as the frequency of these events increases. Most studies evaluate the impact on a country level, while similar studies on a sub-national level are few; however, recently, more researchers have studied the sub-national impacts on the economy (see Boustan et al 2020;Panwar and Sen 2020;Fischer 2021). The literature reveals mixed results related to the nexus between economic growth and disasters, which points to the complexities related to assessing the economics of disasters as it varies in type (Atsalakis et al 2021), duration (González et al 2021) and scale (Shabnam 2014).…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Disasters and Investment: Assessing the Performance of the Underlying Economy Following a Large-Scale Stimulus in the Built Environment

Dyason

2022

JRFM

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Disasters are often followed by a large-scale stimulus supporting the economy through the built environment, which can last years. During this time, official economic indicators tend to suggest the economy is doing well, but as activity winds down, the sentiment can quickly change. In response to the damaging 2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, the regional economy outpaced national economic growth rates for several years during the rebuild. The repair work on the built environment created years of elevated building activity. However, after the peak of the rebuilding activity, as economic and employment growth retracts below national growth, we are left with the question of how the underlying economy performs during large scale stimulus activity in the built environment. This paper assesses the performance of the underlying economy by quantifying the usual, demand-driven level of building activity at this time. Applying an Input–Output approach and excluding the economic benefit gained from the investment stimulus reveals the performance of the underlying economy. The results reveal a strong growing underlying economy, and while convergence was expected as the stimulus slowed down, the results found that growth had already crossed over for some time. The results reveal that the investment stimulus provides an initial 1.5% to 2% growth buffer from the underlying economy before the growth rates cross over. This supports short-term economic recovery and enables the underlying economy to transition away from a significant rebuild stimulus. Once the growth crosses over, five years after the disaster, economic growth in the underlying economy remains buoyant even if official regional economic data suggest otherwise.

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Post-Disaster Spillovers: Evidence from Iranian Provinces

Cited by 9 publications

References 41 publications

The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery

The regional consequence of a disaster: Assessing employment transition during economic recovery

Role of hydrocarbons and renewable energies in Iran's energy matrix focusing on bioenergy: review

Disasters and Investment: Assessing the Performance of the Underlying Economy Following a Large-Scale Stimulus in the Built Environment

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