Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

Dyson, Louise; Hill, Edward M.; Moore, Sam; Curran-Sebastian, Jacob; Tildesley, Michael J.; Lythgoe, Katrina A.; House, Thomas; Pellis, Lorenzo; Keeling, Matthew James

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25915-7

Cited by 105 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…We break the model into multiple sections that combine to generate a picture of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK. This model structure has been detailed in previous publications [14,15,[19][20][21] but we review the details here for completeness.…”

Section: Supplementary Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

Keeling

Brooks-Pollock

Challen

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide transmission and replication of SARS- COV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, has resulted in the opportunity for multiple mutations to occur that may alter the virus transmission characteristics, the effectiveness of vaccines and the severity of disease upon infection. The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was first reported to the WHO by South Africa on 24 November 2021 and was declared a variant of concern by the WHO on 26 November 2021. The variant was first detected in the UK on 27 November 2021 and has since been reported in a number of countries globally where it is frequently associated with rapid increase in cases. Here we present analyses of UK data showing the earliest signatures of the Omicron variant and mathematical modelling that uses the UK data to simulate the potential impact of this variant in the UK. In order to account for the uncertainty in transmission advantage, vaccine escape and severity at the time of writing, we carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of these variant characteristics on future risk.

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Section: Supplementary Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

Keeling

Brooks-Pollock

Challen

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…21 Possible challenges to successful COVID-19 vaccination campaigns include unequal distribution globally, and continued emergence of SARS-CoV-2 lineages (variants) with immune escape capability. 22,23 Furthermore, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy continues to present a serious threat to the efforts aimed to control the ongoing pandemic. 24 A previous systematic review had investigated COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates worldwide based on survey studies by December 2020.…”

Section: Video Abstractmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Global Map of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Rates per Country: An Updated Concise Narrative Review

Sallam¹,

Alsanafi²,

Sallam³

2022

JMDH

179

151

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The delay or refusal of vaccination, which defines vaccine hesitancy, is a major challenge to successful control of COVID-19 epidemic. The huge number of publications addressing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy necessitates periodic review to provide a concise summary of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates worldwide. In the current narrative review, data on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates were retrieved from surveys in 114 countries/ territories. In East and Southern Africa (n = 9), the highest COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate was reported in Ethiopia (92%), while the lowest rate was reported in Zimbabwe (50%). In West/ Central Africa (n = 13), the highest rate was reported in Niger (93%), while the lowest rate was reported in Cameroon (15%). In Asia and the Pacific (n = 16), the highest rates were reported in Nepal and Vietnam (97%), while the lowest rate was reported in Hong Kong (42%). In Eastern Europe/Central Asia (n = 7), the highest rates were reported in Montenegro (69%) and Kazakhstan (64%), while the lowest rate was reported in Russia (30%). In Latin America and the Caribbean (n = 20), the highest rate was reported in Mexico (88%), while the lowest rate was reported in Haiti (43%). In the Middle East/North Africa (MENA, n = 22), the highest rate was reported in Tunisia (92%), while the lowest rate was reported in Iraq (13%). In Western/Central Europe and North America (n = 27), the highest rates were reported in Canada (91%) and Norway (89%), while the lowest rates were reported in Cyprus and Portugal (35%). COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates ≥60% were seen in 72/114 countries/territories, compared to 42 countries/territories with rates between 13% and 59%. The phenomenon of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy appeared more pronounced in the MENA, Europe and Central Asia, and Western/ Central Africa. More studies are recommended in Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia to address intentions of the general public to get COVID-19 vaccination.

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“…Variants of concern have emerged throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, causing multiple waves of infection (Dyson et al 2021). The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant has been shown to be highly transmissible with decreased susceptibility to therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and neutralizing antibodies conferred by vaccination or prior infection (Flemming 2022;VanBlargan et al 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Neutralizing immunity in vaccine breakthrough infections from the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants

Servellita

Syed

Brazer

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Virus-like particle (VLP) and live virus assays were used to investigate neutralizing immunity to Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in 239 samples from 125 fully vaccinated individuals. In uninfected, non-boosted individuals, VLP neutralization titers to Delta and Omicron were reduced 2.7-fold and 15.4-fold, respectively, compared to wild-type (WT), while boosted individuals (n=23) had 18-fold increased titers. Delta breakthrough infections (n=39) had 57-fold and 3.1-fold titers whereas Omicron breakthrough infections (n=14) had 5.8-fold and 0.32-fold titers compared to uninfected non-boosted and boosted individuals, respectively. The difference in titers (p=0.049) was related to a higher proportion of moderate to severe infections in the Delta cohort (p=0.014). Correlation of neutralizing and spike quantitative antibody titers was decreased with Delta or Omicron compared to WT. Neutralizing antibodies in Delta and Omicron breakthrough infections increase overall, but the relative magnitude of increase is greater in more clinically severe infection and against the specific infecting variant.

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Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics

Cited by 105 publications

References 43 publications

Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

A Global Map of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Rates per Country: An Updated Concise Narrative Review

Neutralizing immunity in vaccine breakthrough infections from the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants

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