Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

Keeling, Matthew James; Brooks-Pollock, Ellen; Challen, Robert; Danon, León; Dyson, Louise; Guzman-Rincon, Laura; Hill, Edward M.; Pellis, Lorenzo; Read, Jonathan M.; Tildesley, Michael J.

doi:10.1101/2021.12.30.21268307

Cited by 14 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…We assume that effectiveness against death is halfway between effectiveness against hospitalisation and 100%, as vaccines tend to provide better protection against more severe outcomes. These assumptions are broadly consistent with the range of vaccine effectiveness values used by UK SPI-MO modelling groups ( Barnard et al, 2021 ; Keeling & Dyson, 2022 ; Keeling et al, 2021 ). In a sensitivity analysis, we investigate an alternative set of vaccine effectiveness parameters from Golding & Lydeamore, ( Golding & Lydeamore, 2022 ) - see Supplementary Table S2 .…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 70%

An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand

Vattiato

Maclaren

Lustig³

et al. 2022

Infectious Disease Modelling

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 70%

An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand

Vattiato

Maclaren

Lustig³

et al. 2022

Infectious Disease Modelling

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“…Our approach is less computationally intensive than dynamic models and by using theoretical results we provide a fast, transparent, and intuitive understanding of how behaviour translates to hospital admissions and deaths. In contrast to the majority of dynamic models used for forward epidemic projections [30][31][32], our approach is individual-based where individuals are explicitly modelled and scaled up to the population-level. This means that individual-level survey data can be readily incorporated, along with the associated uncertainties.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effect of vaccination is incorporated into the model via three mechanisms: by reducing the probability that an individual is infected (reduced susceptibility), reducing the probability that the individual will transmit to others (reduced transmissibility) and reducing the risk of severe disease and death. We use UKHSA estimates of vaccine effectiveness for the Delta variant [15] and scale the effectiveness against infection and transmission down by squaring the effectiveness expressed as a proportion – therefore an effectiveness of 80% against Delta becomes 64% against Omicron [25].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of voluntary risk-mitigation behaviour on transmission of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England

Brooks-Pollock

Northstone

Pellis

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 infection poses substantial challenges to public health. In England, "plan B" mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops, but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown. Methods We developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours during the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/Covid Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we describe the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave. Results Over 95% of survey respondents (N_ALSPAC=2,686 and N_Twins=6,155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with being fully vaccinated and using home testing kits the most frequently reported behaviours. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to "plan B". We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 15,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about vaccine effectiveness. We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%. Conclusions We conclude that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission.

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“…In particular, in our works [6][7][8][9][10][11], it was noted that specialists in the field of physical and mathematical sciences make an important contribution to research on the spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19. Works on statistical analysis [2][3][4][5][12][13][14][15], forecasting [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32], forecasting systematization [33,34], spatial-temporary modeling of the spread of the new coronavirus [35][36][37][38] etc. was actively continuing in 2021.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021

Amiranashvili

Khazaradze

Japaridze

2022

Preprint

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The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 contributed to positive trends in the spread of COVID-19 until February - the first half of March 2021. Then, in April-May 2021, the epidemiological situation worsened significantly, and from June to the end of December COVID - situation in Georgia was very difficult. In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of monthly forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/. The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained. Georgia's ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in investigation period (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in October 2021 Georgia was in the 4 place on new infection cases, and in September - in the 1 place on death. Georgia took the best place in terms of confirmed cases of diseases (thirteenth) in December, and in mortality (fifth) - in October. A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from September 01, 2021 to December 31, 2021with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 76.8 % (September 03, 2021), the smallest 18.7 % (November 10, 2021). As in previous work [9,10] the statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 6024 (November 3, 2021), R = 6017 (November 15, 2021), D = 86 (September 3, 2021), I = 12.04 % (November 24, 2021). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 4757 (1 Decade of November 2021), R = 4427 (3 Decade of November 2021), D = 76 (2 Decade of November 2021), I = 10.55 % (1 Decade of November 2021). It was found that as in spring and summer 2021 [9,10], from September to December 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R, D and I have the form of a tenth order polynomial. Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months for the indicated period of time were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +139 cases/day (1 Decade of October 2021), V(R) = +124 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(D) = +1.7 cases/day (3 Decade of October 2021), V(I) = + 0.20 %/ day (1 decades of October 2021). Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 12 and 14 days after infection (CR=0.77 and 0.78 respectively), and deaths - after 7, 9, 11, 13 and 14 days (0.70≤CR≤0.72); from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 14 days after infection (RC=0.71), and deaths - after 9 days (CR=0.43). In Georgia from September 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 the duration of the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to 28 and 35 days respectively; from October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021 - up to 21 and 29 days respectively. Comparison of daily real and calculated monthly predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in investigation period of time daily and mean monthly real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. Traditionally, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.

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Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England

Cited by 14 publications

References 13 publications

An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand

An assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand

Impact of voluntary risk-mitigation behaviour on transmission of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England

The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from September 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021

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