Population Redistribution towards Core Areas of Less Developed Countries, 1950-1980

Abstract

"This paper presents estimates of the rate of population redistribution to the core areas of 44 developing countries over the period 1950-80. Particular attention is given to the period 1970-80, a time during which the core areas of developed countries experienced substantial declines in their rates of net inmigration. The principal finding is that the core areas of most developing countries are still experiencing high and, in a number of cases, increasing rates of net inmigration." The author contends that "this finding confirms the developmental model of spatial concentration and dispersal and should lay to rest other explanations of deconcentration, including arguments that focus on diseconomies of absolute size in the core area or on fluctuations in the aggregate economy." The difference between the population growth rates of entire nations and of core areas is used as a measure of interregional migration. Data for the 44 countries and information on the data sources are included in appendixes.

Population Concentration in Less Developed Countries: New Evidence

“…The population deconcentration that first manifested itself in Argentina at a per capita income level fairly close to USD 5,000 continued (1980-91, USD 4,129). The long established deconcentration trends in Israel and Sri Lanka, unusual cases whose peculiarities were discussed by Vining (1986), continued during the 1970s (1972( -83, USD 7,358) and 1980s (1981, USD 2,018), respectively.…”

“…While there is a weak negative correlation between the rate of net .pligration into the core region and per capita income, the share of population residing in the core region may continue to rise when per capita income is well beyond USD 5,000. Table 1 on the following pages, a highlighted table cell is used to denote new census observations, in the case of countries covered previously by Vining (1986) and to denote countries not covered previously. Unavailable per capita GDP data are indicated by "na" for "not available."…”

“…Consistent with the rule proposed for urban populations by Wheaton and Shishido, this tended to occur at a per capita GDP level of approximately USO 5,000, albeit with exceptions, such as Japan, in which concentration continued to rise long after national income had reached USO 5,000. Population redistribution trends in the LDCs through the 1980 round of censuses were then examined by Vining (1986), who concluded as follows:…”

“…NEW EVIDENCE In Table 1 of Appendix A, the LDC census data presented by Vining (1986) are updated through the 1990 round of censuses, and data for many new countries 1re presented. The chosen index of population redistribution is the difference (x 10 3 ) between the core region's exponential population growth rate and that of the country as a whole.…”

The City-Country Rule: An Extension of the Rank-Size Rule

“…Empirical testing has also continued on the level of individual countries and regions past and present (Berry and Kasarda 1977, Skinner 1977, Alden 1979, Asami 1986, Vining 1986) as well as for the world as a whole (Chase-Dunn 1985, Ettlinger andArcher 1987). Agreements and disagreements with the rank-size rule have been observed, as well as diffi culties in testing it, since "legal" (administrative) and actual sizes of population centers diff er (Asami 1986) and national units may not always be the most suitable units in which the test should be carried out.…”