Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin

Wen, Shanshan; Wang, Anqian; Tao, Hui; Malik, Khalid Mahmood; Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Cheng, Jing; Rasul, Ghulam; Su, Buda

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.12.003

Cited by 37 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 44 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…8%, relative to 1986-2005, under assumption of fixed population at the 2010 census level (Sun et al, 2017). In the Indus River Basin, population exposure to droughts is projected to increase 2.6-2.9 fold and 2.7-3.2 fold, respectively, for the 1.5°C and the 2.0°C global warming scenarios, relative to the reference period (Wen et al, 2019).…”

confidence: 99%

“…The Indus River is the main source of water supply for Pakistan. The river has a source in the Tibetan Plateau, flows southwest through the western Himalayan Mountains, and finally enters the Arabian Sea (Huang et al, 2017;Su et al, 2016;Wen et al, 2019).…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001448mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The climate variable of five GCMs used to calculate SPEI was bias-corrected against global WATCH Forcing Data using a trend-preserving method (Hempel et al, 2013). The resulting bias-corrected model outputs cover the period 1950-2099 by daily time scale at 0.5 o × 0.5 o spatial resolution (Warszawski et al, 2014) and have been applied in many impact studies (Chen et al, 2018;Wen et al, 2019). In current paper, ensemble mean of the five GCMs is used, as combined results of multiple models are usually regarded as superior to that of a single model (Zhou & Yu, 2006).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to obtain the spatial distribution of population in the TRB and the IRB, we adopt the gridded population of the world (GPWv4), which contains the distribution of population at a 1-km resolution (Wen et al, 2019). The gridded population resampled into 0.5 o to match the GCMs and then proportion of the population in each grid to the national total in 2010 from GPWv4 was used to deduce gridded population under SSPs in China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India.…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001448mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the increase of SPEI time scale, the periodic characteristics of droughts gradually appear. The SPEI-12 is selected in this paper to reflect the long-term water loss process and to indicate the interannual changes of droughts (Chen et al, 2018;Wen et al, 2019).…”

Section: 1029/2019ef001448mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus

Wang

et al. 2020

Earth's Future

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Droughts are major, large-scale, weather-driven natural disasters, on the rise in the changing climate. We project changing population exposure to drought in two vulnerable, adjacent, basins of large rivers, the Tarim River Basin (TRB) and the Indus River Basin (IRB), for the future horizon 2021-2065. Drought events are assessed based on the outputs of multiple Global Climate Models, by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Intensity-Area-Duration method (IAD). Future population exposure to droughts is evaluated by combining the drought events under three RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) with the projected population from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), acknowledging the recent two-child policy in China. Results show that frequency of drought events in both river basins could increase in the future, while increase in the TRB is stronger than in the IRB. The areal coverage of drought events in both river basins is projected to be greater in 2021-2065 than in 1961-2005. Increase of frequency and areal coverage in both basins is especially strong for the class of extreme drought events. According to the ensemble mean of multi-GCMs, population exposure to droughts was 25.0% and 20.9% of the total population in the TRB and the IRB, respectively, in 1961-2005, and it is projected to increase by over 60% for the TRB and to increase by over 30% for the IRB, in 2021-2065.Plain Language Summary As a major, large-scale, weather-driven natural disaster, drought may occur in all climatic zones and cause significant losses in human and natural systems. Both the Tarim River Basin and the Indus River Basin are vulnerable to drought, but changing characteristics of population exposure to drought is unknown for the two basins under the climate and population dynamics scenarios. We analyze the changing frequency and areal coverage of drought events in 2021-2065 relative to 1961-2005 and then quantify the population exposure to drought in both two river basins. It was found that frequency and areal coverage of drought in both river basins could increase in the future. Increase of frequency and areal coverage in both basins is especially strong for extreme drought events. Population exposure to droughts was 25.0% and 20.9% of the total population in the Tarim and the Indus River Basin, respectively, in 1961-2005, and it is projected to increase by over 60% for the Tarim River Basin and by over 30% for the Indus River Basin in 2021-2065.

show abstract

confidence: 99%

Section: 1029/2019ef001448mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 1029/2019ef001448mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 1029/2019ef001448mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus

Wang

et al. 2020

Earth's Future

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0°C warmer climate: Assessment of population and GDP exposures to droughts in China

Liu

Chen

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Socioeconomic development and natural ecosystems of China are strongly affected by droughts. The socioeconomic risk of droughts in China should be quantified under climate change. This study assessed drought impacts on population and gross domestic product (GDP) under the 2.0 C-warmer climate scenario, by implementing multiple general circulation model (GCM) simulations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP). Using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we calculated drought frequencies in the base period (1986-2005) and 2.0 C-warmer climate (2040-2059 in RCP4.5). Then, population and GDP exposures were evaluated by combining the drought frequency with population and GDP simulations under a shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP). Droughts were likely to occur more frequently under the 2 C-warmer climate, especially for inland areas of northern China (i.e., Xinjiang, Xizang, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Gansu provinces), consisting mainly of mild and moderate droughts. Population exposure to drought was projected at 4.94 ± 0.36 × 10 9 person-months, around 2% increase over the base period value. GDP exposure would increase significantly to 2.08 ± 0.15 × 10 14 PPP $-months, approximately 14-fold over the base period. Probability analysis showed nearly 50% of the grid cells of China's entire territory undergoing more than an 11-fold increase in GDP exposure. Our findings indicated the climate and GDP effects were primary contributors, respectively, to the changed population and GDP exposures to drought. Population and GDP exposures were distributed unequally across the country, having a large impact in the east where both population and economic activity are highly agglomerated. Our results reveal an urgent need to design and implement effective adaptation measures to overcome droughts, especially in eastern China.

show abstract

Changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2°C

You

Zhang

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

China has experienced rapid warming in recent decades and is projected to warm at similar rates throughout the remainder of this century. In this study, the projected changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China and four subregions (Northern China, Northwestern China, Southern China, and Tibetan Plateau) are investigated under global warming of 1.5 and 2 C above pre-industrial levels under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations and their multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM). In comparison with the observations over China, the most CMIP5 models can capture the observed warming patterns while the MMEM of surface mean temperature has a cold bias. Under global warming of 1.5/2 C, the MMEM of surface mean temperature over China, Northern China, Northwestern China, Southern China, and Tibetan Plateau under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) will increase by 1.82/2.6 C (1.83/2.52 C), 1.8/2.57 C (1.85/2.56 C), 1.99/2.76 C (1.97/2.76 C), 1.43/2.13 C (1.43/2.04 C), and 2.11/2.96 C (2.1/2.85 C), respectively. This study suggests that surface mean temperature over China will exceed the 1.5 and 2 C target earlier than the global mean, with the earlier regions over the Tibetan Plateau. Under global warming of 1.5 and 2 C, the model uncertainty is the dominant source over China and four subregions, followed by both internal variability and scenario uncertainty. Future work should improve climate model simulations and reduce the uncertainty over China before investigating warming changes and patterns under different global warming levels.

show abstract

Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin

Cited by 37 publications

References 44 publications

Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus

Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus

Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0°C warmer climate: Assessment of population and GDP exposures to droughts in China

Changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2°C

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin

Cited by 37 publications

References 44 publications

Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus

Comparison of Changing Population Exposure to Droughts in River Basins of the Tarim and the Indus

Socioeconomic risk of droughts under a 2.0°C warmer climate: Assessment of population and GDP exposures to droughts in China

Changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2°C

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Population exposed to drought under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming in the Indus River Basin