Changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2°C

Wu, Fu‐Peng; You, Qinglong; Zhang, Ziyin; Zhang, Ling

doi:10.1002/joc.6694

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the tropical WNP SST does not show any remarkable increasing trend in the future 30 years (2021-2050), while the East Asian continent will continue to warm (Figs. 4a and b), consistent with the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble result [27][28][29] . Therefore, the warming continent will further reduce the VWS over the tropical WNP, contributing to an increase in the local TC intensity.…”

supporting

confidence: 76%

The dominant role of East Asia warming in increasing tropical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity

Zhao

Wang

Chan

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been linked to a warming ocean1-8. Here we show, however, that the TC intensity increasing trend in the tropical WNP during the past three decades are mainly related to the warming of the East Asian continent, especially a warming Tibetan Plateau (TP). The regional weak increasing trend of local sea surface temperature unlikely supplies the necessary energy for this increase in TC intensity. Instead, a weakened vertical wind shear (VWS) appears to be the main contributing factor. Through numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the warming TP strengthens the South Asian high-pressure system, which triggers a wave train toward the tropical WNP, subsequently modifying the upper- and lower-tropospheric zonal winds to reduce the VWS. Applying the high correlation between TC intensity and the local VWS to climate model projection results supports that TCs will likely become stronger, with a significantly increasing rate of 1.0 m s-1/10 years during 2021–2050, due to a further warming of the East Asian continent. Thus, the rims of East Asia and Southeast Asia could face an increasing risk of intense typhoons.

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supporting

confidence: 76%

The dominant role of East Asia warming in increasing tropical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity

Zhao

Wang

Chan

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…For temperature, a significant increase is projected throughout mainland China, especially for northern parts with a large magnitude in response to the global warming (Figure 1D–F). These changes in precipitation and temperature from the present period to 1.5°C (2°C) warming are overall consistent with previous studies (Fu et al ., 2018; Shi et al ., 2018; Li et al ., 2021; Wu et al ., 2021b). For example, for the RCP8.5 scenario, the relative higher increase in temperature is shown in northern China compared with that in southeastern regions (Fu et al ., 2018; Shi et al ., 2018; Wu et al ., 2021b), which is clearly shown in Figure 1.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population exposure to compound dry and hot events in China under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Hao

Tang

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Both droughts and hot extremes may exert critical impacts on human society, and their concurrence is no exception. Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of compound dry and hot events widely, the impacts of which will be particularly severe for sensitive and vulnerable sectors. However, projected risk and impact of compound dry and hot events in China are less assessed, especially in the context of the goals specified by the Paris Agreement in 2015. Here, we show an overall increased risk of compound dry and hot events on human health in China, particularly in eastern regions, for the two warming levels (1.5 and 2°C) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models. The population exposure to extreme compound dry and hot events is projected to increase by about 165.46% for the 1.5°C warming and about 200.49% for the 2°C warming compared with the exposure in the present period 1986–2005. These potential variations are driven by climate change and population change with climate effect being the dominantly positive contributor. These findings highlight the urgent need for more efforts to limit warming within 1.5°C to reduce the risk of compound dry and hot events and associated impacts on human society.

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“…China is vulnerable to weather and climate extremes due to the complicated climate and fragile eco‐environment. Over the course of recent decades, the odds of climate extremes, such as droughts and hot extremes, have changed widely (Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004; Dai, 2012; Perkins, 2015; Su et al ., 2020; Di Luca et al ., 2020a; Wu et al ., 2021), with substantial concomitant impacts on human society and ecosystems over different regions, including China (Lu et al ., 2016; Mora et al ., 2017; Sutanto et al ., 2020). Drought analysis based on different indicators has detected an overall increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity in China in the past few decades (Yu et al ., 2014; Shao et al ., 2018), which is accompanied by a fast increase in temperature‐related extremes (Sun et al ., 2014; 2017; Guo et al ., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic influence on compound dry and hot events in China based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

Hao

Zhang

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Compared to individual dry or hot events, compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) usually pose more severe economic and societal impacts. A growing body of literature investigates the role of anthropogenic forcing on variations of individual dry and hot events at different spatial scales. However, the attribution of CDHEs in China using model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) has received little attention. This study investigates the anthropogenic influence on CDHEs during summer in China and projects their future occurrences using CMIP6 simulations with data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) as observations. The results show that large regions of China experienced a significantly increased frequency of CDHEs during 1971–2010 relative to 1931–1970, which is overall captured by the CMIP6 simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is shown to contribute to the high likelihood of CDHEs in recent decades over most parts of China, with remarkable contributions in southwestern regions. Under future socioeconomic development scenarios, these CDHEs are projected to become more frequent in 2021–2100, which will increase by approximately 51.56–55.00% on average compared to that in 1931–2010. This study could aid the development of mitigation strategies of CDHEs across China under global warming.

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Changes and uncertainties of surface mean temperature over China under global warming of 1.5 and 2°C

Cited by 13 publications

References 49 publications

The dominant role of East Asia warming in increasing tropical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity

The dominant role of East Asia warming in increasing tropical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity

Population exposure to compound dry and hot events in China under 1.5 and 2°C global warming

Anthropogenic influence on compound dry and hot events in China based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

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