Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe

Abstract

This paper provides a systematic, multidimensional demographic analysis of the degree to which negative economic consequences of population aging can be mitigated by changes in migration and labor-force participation. Using a microsimulation population projection model accounting for 13 individual characteristics including education and immigration-related variables, we built scenarios of future changes in labor-force participation, migration volumes, and their educational composition and speed of integration for the 28 European Union (EU) member states. We study the consequences in terms of the conventional age-dependency ratio, the labor-force dependency ratio, and the productivity-weighted labor-force dependency ratio using education as a proxy of productivity, which accounts for the fact that not all individuals are equality productive in society. The results show that in terms of the more sophisticated ratios, population aging looks less daunting than when only considering age structure. In terms of policy options, lifting labor-force participation among the general population as in Sweden, and education-selective migration if accompanied by high integration, could even improve economic dependency. On the other hand, high immigration volumes combined with both low education and integration leads to increasing economic dependency. This shows the high stakes involved with integration outcomes under high migration volumes.

A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model

“…For example, an older population may result in a reduced willingness to move and increased mental health burden of doing so [ 68 ]. Conversely, countries with aging populations can benefit from the ‘healthy-migrant’ effect [ 69 ]. As such, appreciating the demographic factors, their dynamics and interactions is essential to understanding climate risk on future sustainable development and population changes.…”

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

“…PWLFDR The PWLFDR, introduced by Marois et al (20), divides the number of inactives (the population out the labor force irrespectively of their age) by the number of people in the labor force, weighted by a productivity factor associated to their educational attainment. Eq.…”

Projecting health-ageing trajectories in Europe using a dynamic microsimulation model

“…Microsimulation methods have been used by population scientists to model demographic processes, to make detailed and realistic population projections encompassing various population dimensions, and to gain insights on life course transitions 55 . Some examples of the use of microsimulation models in demography are the following: projection of the future effects of the ethnocultural diversity 56,57 ; simulation of the changes in human-capital accumulation, immigration volumes, speed of integration, and labor force participation 58 ; forecasting the potential impact of sociocultural inequalities in education on the future human capital accumulation level 59 ; simulation of the impacts of the decline of literacy skills on the future working-age population; and projection of populations in small areas 60 . See Lomax and Smith 61 for a good overview of microsimulation applications in demography.…”