China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

Marois, Guillaume; Gietel‐Basten, Stuart; Lutz, Wolfgang

doi:10.1073/pnas.2108900118

Cited by 40 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…42 Other dimensions of population change, especially education and health, contribute to increased wellbeing and productivity and could offset many of the challenges linked with population ageing. 43 Countries with smaller, older populations need to realise the full social and economic potential of all citizens, including migrants and their families. This involves continued investment in maintaining wellbeing and good health from infancy into old age, which is lagging in many countries, including the UK.…”

Section: Beyond Birth Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changing the perspective on low birth rates: why simplistic solutions won’t work

Gietel‐Basten

Rotkirch

Sobotka

2022

BMJ

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The news that birth rates hit record low levels in many countries in Europe, Asia, and the Americas in the past decade was met with some alarm globally. More than half of the world's population lives in countries with a total fertility rate below two children per woman. The rate is below 1.5 in 46 countries (fig 1), and ranges from 1.3 to 1.8 in many middle income countries such as Brazil, Iran, China, Turkey, and India. 1 Countries that, until recently, had fertility

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Section: Beyond Birth Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Urgent reform of health and welfare systems is required to meet the demands of an ageing population 42. Other dimensions of population change, especially education and health, contribute to increased wellbeing and productivity and could offset many of the challenges linked with population ageing 43…”

Section: Beyond Birth Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing the perspective on low birth rates: why simplistic solutions won’t work

Gietel‐Basten

Rotkirch

Sobotka

2022

BMJ

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“…This could include raising child allowances and benefits, increasing maternity and paternity leaves, and improving housing support and child education support. Lastly, innovation is the only way forward when navigating a changing workforce and economy [11,12]. Human capital development and the use of novel technologies such as the use of robots in manufacturing industries and innovative approaches towards economic development will be able to cushion the impact of these demographic changes by employing new paradigms in its policies.…”

Section: Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The challenges of the low birth rate in China

Lucero‐Prisno

Kouwenhoven

Vicerra

et al. 2022

Public Health Challenges

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Introduction The population growth rate of China has been steadily declining owing to the low birth rate of the country. The Chinese census also indicates that the population is also rapidly ageing because of increasing life expectancy in conjunction with the low birth rate. Method We performed a commentary to point out the challenges of the low birth rate in China. A comprehensive data search was performed in data bases such as Google Scholar and PubMed using predetermined search term. Results The decline in birth rate is due to societal changes including increasing standard of living. Although the Chinese government has recently allowed couples to have up to three children in a major policy shift, many couples remain unwilling to have more than one child due to the high cost. An increasing fraction of Chinese women, particularly among the highly‐educated urban dwellers, no longer regard marriage and parenthood as essential aspects of life. Conclusion If not addressed urgently, the declining young population will impact China's future socio‐economic situation, as there will be a smaller workforce relative to an increasing dependent older population. The repercussions may cascade to other spheres of China's status, including socioeconomic, security and global influence, if not addressed decisively. It is imperative that the country develops policies, strategies, and approaches to tackle this issue, including human capital development and the use of technology and innovations.

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“…Furthermore, it is interesting to relate these changes to fertili-ty scenarios. Although some assessments link different levels of fertility to dependency ratios, these have rarely used microsimulation models (but see a recent assessment for China in Marois, Basten & Lutz, 2021).…”

Section: Figure 1 Population In Finland By Educational Level In 2019mentioning

confidence: 99%

Future population ageing and productivity in Finland under different education and fertility scenarios

Marois

Rotkirch

Lutz

2022

Finnish Yearb Popul Res

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This study projects different dependency ratios under various scenarios of future fertility and tertiary education in Finland to assess how the economic consequences of population aging depend on these trends. Applying a multidimensional demographic approach through a discrete-time microsimulation model, we project the newly introduced productivity-weighted labour force dependency ratio for Finnish scenarios until 2060 and compared it with the labour force dependency ratio and the traditional age dependency ratio. Results show that population aging looks less daunting when considering labour force dependency ratios as compared to purely age-based ratios, yet all measures and scenarios show a deterioration of the dependency ratio. While the old age dependency ratio is projected to increase by 73 per cent, the labour force dependency ratio would increase by 32 per cent, and the productivity weighted labour force dependency ratio by 28 per cent. Provided a more rapid increase in educational attainment, the last indicator is expected to increase less, with 21 per cent until 2060. Should the stalled trend in educational achievement of the 2010s continue, there would be very modest future gains in the productivity-weighted ratio. In other words, the consequences of population ageing look less dramatic for economic productivity, were Finnish men to become as educated as Finnish women. Of the three fertility scenarios considered, a total fertility rate of 2.0 is most advantageous and a low fertility of 1.2 least optimal for adult dependency ratios, but only after 2050. Interestingly, a combination of recovered fertility to 1.6 with a more rapid educational expansion would be better for productivity than only raising fertility to 2.0. Boosting educational levels would hence mitigate the negative effects of a shrinking labour force more than increasing fertility within reasonable bounds. Our results suggest that implementation of the current government goals for educational expansion, combined with a not unrealistic recovery of total fertility rates to around 1.6, would both clearly alleviate the worsening dependency ratio. We conclude that although there is no quick fix to the economic effects of population ageing, these can be proactively mitigated with different and complementing policies, and taking into account multidimensional population trends.

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China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity

Cited by 40 publications

References 27 publications

Changing the perspective on low birth rates: why simplistic solutions won’t work

Changing the perspective on low birth rates: why simplistic solutions won’t work

The challenges of the low birth rate in China

Future population ageing and productivity in Finland under different education and fertility scenarios

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