Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts

Mason, Andrew; Tung, An‐Chi; Lai, Mun-Sim; Miller, Tim

doi:10.3386/w12770

Cited by 72 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 48 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…These data form part of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project (www.ntaccounts.org). National Transfer Accounts (NTA) is a system for measuring economic flows by age at the aggregate level in a manner consistent with National Accounts [MASON et al, 2009]. NTAs provide a complete and coherent measurement of economic relationships between population groups (by age, gender, socioeconomic status) within a national economy in the same way that National Accounts measure economic relationships between sectors (household, production, government).…”

Section: S11mentioning

confidence: 99%

The fiscal impact of population aging in Brazil: 2005-2050

Miller¹,

Castanheira²

2013

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, we estimate the fiscal impact on population aging in Brazil from 2005 through 2050. We focus on three key areas of public spending: education, pensions, and health care. Our projections are based on a simple model in which aggregate public expenditures are driven by changes in the age structure of the population as well as by changes in the average public benefits received per age. We assess the likely increases in public spending over the coming decades, contrasting the divergent trends in public spending on education, pensions, and health care. We also assess the magnitude of these changes in terms of growth in spending relative to GDP annually through 2050 and estimate the present value of the increase in spending. We find that changing population age structure will lead to increasing cost pressures in health care and especially in pensions. Our projections show that beginning around 2015, public spending will begin a sustained and rapid increase lasting several decades rising from 18% of GDP to reach 27% of GDP by 2050. The needs for increased investment in students will compete against those for sustaining pension benefits and facing increasing demands for health care. In particular, our projections show that an ambitious educational reform aimed at reaching the OECD level of investment per youth within a decade would amount to only about one fourth of the projected cost increases in public health and pension programs.

show abstract

Section: S11mentioning

confidence: 99%

The fiscal impact of population aging in Brazil: 2005-2050

Miller¹,

Castanheira²

2013

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The difference between consumption and labour income in NTA offers a measure for the average economic dependency (if positive) or the economic ability to support others (if negative) at each age and is termed life cycle deficit (LCD) (Mason et al, 2006). It can also be derived by an rearrangement of the terms in Equation (1) C − YL…”

Section: An Economic Dependency Ratio: the Life Cycle Deficitmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reforming Welfare States

Huber

Leoni

Pitlik

2016

Competitiveness, Social Inclusion and Sustainability in a Diverse European Union

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.

show abstract

“…The population projections are paired with NTAs for the seven countries for which they are available from the National Transfer Accounts Project (Table 1). 4 The concept of NTAs is described concisely and in-depth elsewhere (Mason et al 2006;Prskawetz and Sambt 2014;UN 2013). Below we outline only the components that are essential to our application, together with a few caveats.…”

Section: National Transfer Accounts and Population Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They observed that the National Transfer Accounts (NTAs) (Mason et al 2006) show that for many countries, pension transfers make up the largest share of public old-age transfers until rather late in life. Until recently, the pension ages in many countries had been unchanged for decades, with a downward trend in the average age of retirement (OECD 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts

Barslund¹,

Werder²

2017

Populationyearbook

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Compared to the older people of today, future older generations will be in better health, and will likely work longer. However, strictly from a public finance perspective, the extent to which the DDRs capture the challenges that stem from ageing depends on future changes in the age structure of the population, in behavioural patterns, and in age-related public transfers. Combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data (i.e., data on age-specific public transfers), we construct a 'transferbased' demographic dependency ratio for seven European countries up to 2050. We then compare the quantitative impact of the transfer-based DDR with that of the traditional DDR for three different policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing, and longer working lives. This is done by linking agespecific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge. First, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied, and substantially so for some countries, such as Austria, Finland, and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing (i.e., keeping health transfers constant for a given mortality rate) has a modest effect on public finances, except in the case of Sweden, where it plays an important role. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is captured well by the traditional DDR measure if the common assumption that immigrants are similar to natives is maintained. The immediate to short-term impact of immigration tends to be overstated by the traditional DDR measure. Finally, increasing the average * Mikkel Christoffer Barslund (corresponding author), Centre for European Policy Studies, Place du Congrès,

show abstract

Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts

Cited by 72 publications

References 48 publications

The fiscal impact of population aging in Brazil: 2005-2050

The fiscal impact of population aging in Brazil: 2005-2050

Reforming Welfare States

Measuring dependency ratios using National Transfer Accounts

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About