POMI: a model inter-comparison exercise over the Po Valley

Pernigotti, Denise; Thunis, Philippe; Cuvelier, Cornelis; Georgieva, Emilia; Gsella, A.; Meij, Alexander de; Pirovano, Guido; Balzarini, Alessandra; Riva, G. M.; Carnevale, Claudio; Pisoni, Enrico; Volta, Marialuisa; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Kerschbaumer, Andreas; Viaene, Peter; Ridder, Koen De; Nyíri, Á.; Wind, Peter

doi:10.1007/s11869-013-0211-1

Cited by 35 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In order to perform a regionspecific data analysis, the model domain was divided into eight subregions, seven of which are similar or identical to the PRUDENCE (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/quicklook/ regions.html) climatic regions. The separation was also based on distinct local meteorological or chemical conditions such as in the Benelux area and the Po Valley in northern Italy (Colette et al, 2012;Pernigotti et al, 2012Pernigotti et al, , 2013. We used 14 sigma layers going up to 460 hPa with the first layer being approximately 20 m thick.…”

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Benelux area is exposed to high NO x emissions from both land and shipping activities, leading to a more VOC-sensitive chemical regime for ozone production in this region (Beekmann and Vautard, 2010;Aksoyoglu et al, 2012). The geographical characteristics of the Po Valley in northern Italy led to a trap and accumulation of the pollutants in the area (de Meij et al, 2009a, b;Pernigotti et al, 2012Pernigotti et al, , 2013, which in return can also affect the nearby stations that are located in the MD region. For both the PV and BX regions, there is a consistent increase in modeled ozone mixing ratios for all bins, resulting in a decrease in the negative bias in higher bins and a slight increase in the positive bias in lower bins (Fig.…”

Section: Increased Voc Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…11). The main driver of enhanced ozone production (excluding temperature-driven emission changes) due to a temperature increase is peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) (including similar compounds) chemistry (Baertsch-Ritter et al, 2004;Dawson et al, 2007;Pusede et al, 2015). Those studies explain that PAN can serve as NO x and a radical reservoir, and redistribute them away from the large emission areas (e.g., cities, power plants) to more remote, rural ones (by thermally decomposing back to NO 2 and radicals).…”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, it is known that surface ozone has a high positive correlation with temperature (Sillman and Samson, 1995;Pusede et al, 2015). As a result, temperature has been used in several studies (Neftel et al, 2002;Baertsch-Ritter et al, 2004;Bloomer et al, 2009) as a surrogate to indirectly assess surface ozone production via the ozone-temperature correlation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

et al. 2018

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Abstract. High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone-temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10-20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (< 40 ppb) by 5-15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone-temperature regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations. To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested: (i) increased volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii) increased nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions by a factor of 2, (iii) a combination of the first two scenarios and (iv) increased trafficonly NO x emissions by a factor of 4. For southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area) Europe, doubling NO x emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone-temperature correlation is also better when NO x emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario (where both NO x and VOC emissions are increased) leads to a better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NO x emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all NO x emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NO x emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature by 4 • C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially traffic NO x ) and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be responsible for the model un...

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Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Increased Voc Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

et al. 2018

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“…Model capabilities in reproducing observed concentrations over EU domains have been investigated in a variety of intercomparison exercises (e.g. Vautard et al,2007, Pernigotti et al, 2013, Bessagnet et al, 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Funcionamiento del Sistema WRF-CMAQ para Bulgaria con tres subdominios en Europa

2016

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The air quality modelling system WRF-CMAQ running at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) in Sofia was applied to the European domain for the year 2010 in the frame of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), Phase 2. The model system was set up for a domain of 5000x5000 km 2 size with horizontal resolution of 25 km. The models' options used and the emission input are briefly outlined. The model performance was investigated based on graphical plots and statistical indexes obtained by the web-based model evaluation platform ENSEMBLE. A preliminary operational model evaluation for ozone and particulate matter was conducted, comparing simulated and observed concentrations at ground level in three sub-domains of Europe. The analysis shows model overestimation for ozone and model underestimation for particulate matter. The best statistical indicators are for ozone concentrations during summer, when comparing data for EMEP stations in the EU domain. The worse results are for PM 10 winter concentration in the region of the Balkan countries. Key words: air quality, modelling, ozone, particulate matter, model evaluation, AQMEII Funcionamiento del Sistema WRF-CMAQ para Bulgaria con tres subdominios en EuropaResumen La ejecución del sistema de modelización de calidad del aire WRF-CMAQ se ejecutó por el Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología (NIMH) de Sofía a Europa para el año 2010 dentro de la Fase 2 del proyecto AQMEII. El dominio horizontal es de 5000x5000 km 2 con una resolución de 25 km. Las opciones del sistema y los input de las emisiones se han establecido previamente. La evaluación del sistema se realizó en función de los resultados gráficos y de índices estadísticos de la plataforma ENSEMBLE. Se realizó una evaluación preliminar del modelo en forma operacional para el ozono y partículas, comparando las concentraciones observadas y las obtenidas a nivel del suelo en los tres subdominios europeos elegidos. El análisis manifiesta que el modelo da sobrestimaciones para el ozono e infraestimaciones para las partículas. Los mejores indicadores estadísticos se dan para las concentraciones de ozono durante el verano en todo el dominio europeo, al compararse las concentraciones dadas por el sistema con las observaciones de las estaciones de la red EMEP. Los peores resultados se dan durante el invierno para las partículas PM 10 en las regiones balcánicas.

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Evaluating 4 years of atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) over Europe using IASI satellite observations and LOTOS‐EUROS model results

Damme

Kruit²,

Schaap³

et al. 2014

JGR Atmospheres

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The spatial comparison reveals a good overall agreement of the NH 3 distributions not only in these source regions but also over remote areas and over sea when transport is observed. On average, the measured columns exceed the modeled ones, except for a few cases. Large discrepancies over several industrial areas in Eastern Europe and Russia point to underestimated emissions in the underlying inventories. The temporal analysis over the three hot spot areas reveals that the seasonality is well captured by the model when the lower sensitivity of the satellite measurements in the colder months is taken into account. Comparison of the daily time series indicates possible misrepresentations of the timing and magnitude of the emissions. Finally, specific attention to biomass burning events shows that modeled plumes are less spread out than the observed ones. This is confirmed for the 2010 Russian fires with a comparison using in situ observations.

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POMI: a model inter-comparison exercise over the Po Valley

Cited by 35 publications

References 38 publications

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe

Funcionamiento del Sistema WRF-CMAQ para Bulgaria con tres subdominios en Europa

Evaluating 4 years of atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) over Europe using IASI satellite observations and LOTOS‐EUROS model results

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POMI: a model inter-comparison exercise over the Po Valley

Cited by 35 publications

References 38 publications

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO&lt;sub&gt;&lt;i&gt;x&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;) in Europe

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO&lt;sub&gt;&lt;i&gt;x&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;) in Europe

Funcionamiento del Sistema WRF-CMAQ para Bulgaria con tres subdominios en Europa

Evaluating 4 years of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) over Europe using IASI satellite observations and LOTOS‐EUROS model results

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Product

Resources

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Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe

Evaluating 4 years of atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) over Europe using IASI satellite observations and LOTOS‐EUROS model results