Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation by Leaders Versus Manipulation by Researchers? Evidence From a Meta‐regression Analysis

Abstract

Despite a long history of research on political budget cycles, their existence and magnitude are still in question. By conducting a systematic analysis of the existing literature, we intend to clarify the debate. Based on data collected from 1037 regressions in 46 studies, our meta‐analysis suggests that little, if any, systematic evidence can be found in the research record that national leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be reelected. However, it is much more clear that researchers selectively report that national leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be reelected. The publication selection bias highlighted has nonetheless been reduced during the past 25 years of research. We also show that the incumbents' strategies differ depending on which tools they use. Finally, the nature and quality of political institutions appear to be the factors which most affect the political budget cycles.

Political Opportunism and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Election‐year Recessions

“…A survey of a growing literature is provided by de Haan and Klomp (). Meta‐analyses obtain conflicting results: Mandon and Cazals () question the existence of political budget cycles altogether; Philips () finds support for context‐conditionality.…”

Urban Water Pricing and Private Interests’ Lobbying in Small Rural Communities

“…Predictably, this political interference in the pricing of water is greater when the water service is managed by the city council [36]. In addition, there may be more interference in small population centers, since these institutions are less developed and media scrutiny is weaker than at national or regional level, or even than in larger municipalities [37]. Additionally, it could be expected that this effect would be more noticeable in small municipalities where there is closer contact between politicians and the population, and the relationships between them are shaped by family and friendship ties.…”

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“…Hasil penelitian ini tidak dapat mengkonfirmasi peningkatan belanja menjelang pemilu (Ebeke & Ölçer, 2013) sebagai upaya menarik minat pemegang suara. Jika hasil tersebut benar, kita patut bersyukur apabila sifat dan kualitas infrastruktur politik (Mandon & Cazals, 2019) membuat Indonesia terhindar dari praktik buruk tersebut. 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Proporsi penerimaan SDA Harga minyak mentah…”